The potential of a United States deal to allow a nuclear enrichment program in Saudi Arabia has stoked longtime fears of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto leader, has not ruled out the possibility of building nuclear weapons in the future — especially if Iran, Saudi Arabia’s neighbor and longtime adversary, does so.
The Trump administration announced on Wednesday afternoon that the deal had been signed, but on Thursday morning President Trump put its future in doubt. After U.S. and Israeli leaders criticized the deal, the president mentioned for the first time that the agreement would be conditioned on Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel — which has a secretive nuclear program of its own.
The Saudi government has made clear it has no intention of recognizing Israel without creating a pathway toward the creation of a Palestinian state.
But Saudi Arabia’s interest in building a nuclear energy program goes back decades. And despite fears of nuclear proliferation in the region if the deal is salvaged, the kingdom may have some additional motivations for building a nuclear energy program that are unrelated to developing weapons.
Here are a few key reasons Saudi Arabia may want a civilian nuclear energy program.
To diversify its economy
In 2022, crude oil accounted for 40 percent of Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product. The country’s leaders have long believed that the nation’s economic survival will depend on reducing reliance on fossil fuel exports.
Despite a wealth of natural resources, Saudi Arabia has recorded a budget deficit in all but one of the past 10 years. And it has expensive ambitions, including sci-fi-like construction projects and plans to build power-hungry artificial intelligence data centers.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has demonstrated the risks of an economy that depends heavily on oil. Blockades in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply reduced Saudi Arabia’s oil exports, though experts say the steep, war-driven rise in oil prices has helped counteract the economic blow.
Leaders have hoped Saudi Arabia could also become a major exporter of uranium ore. However, it is unclear whether the nation’s deposits are plentiful or accessible enough to meaningfully contribute to the economy.
But if Saudi Arabia is allowed to enrich uranium — whether mined domestically or imported — it could use the material to help meet its growing energy needs, freeing up more of its fossil fuel reserves for sale to other countries.
To forward a vision of modernization
A decade ago, Prince Mohammed announced sweeping plans to transform Saudi Arabia, declaring that he would end its “addiction” to oil.
The plans, known as the Vision 2030 initiative, included major financial reforms, cultural changes and construction projects.
Saudi leaders have also announced ambitious climate goals. In 2021, the country pledged to produce half of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030.
Today, those goals appear out of reach. Less than 1 percent of Saudi Arabia’s electricity is generated by solar and wind, with almost all the rest produced by gas and oil, according to the World Nuclear Association. Climate researchers and activists have accused the kingdom of disrupting global climate summits, impeding agreements to decrease reliance on fossil fuels.
Nevertheless, leaders in Saudi Arabia may see a nuclear enrichment program as part of the green, modernizing vision they have espoused to foreign governments, businesses and their own people.
To boost prestige
Saudi leaders know that developing a domestic nuclear energy program — with the understanding that weapons could follow — will also have implications for the kingdom’s regional and global standing.
Even without weapons-grade uranium, Saudi leaders may see a nuclear energy program as the first step toward building a deterrent to nuclear-armed nations.
The deal also allows Saudi Arabia to deepen its ties with the United States. During years of negotiations with U.S. leaders over the terms of a possible Saudi nuclear program, the kingdom repeatedly threatened to work on the technology with other countries, including China and Russia.
But Neil Quilliam, a Middle East energy policy expert at the London-based research institute Chatham House, said the kingdom waited to find a path forward with the United States because of “the young Saudi leadership’s confidence in the U.S. remaining the dominant geopolitical player for decades to come.”
Vivian Nereim contributed reporting from Riyadh.
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