Brady Africk is a research analyst specializing in open-source intelligence at the American Enterprise Institute.
Ukraine is ratcheting up the tempo of drone strikes pummeling Crimea, the peninsula annexed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2014. Russia has tried to shield its most valuable military assets by hardening aircraft shelters and beefing up air-defense systems, but it has already paid a steep price. Kyiv’s drones continue to punish critical infrastructure, and the fear of losing more expensive assets has pushed Russian ships and planes farther away from the front.
Thanks to Ukraine’s innovative campaign, U.S. military leaders have a rare chance to absorb battlefield lessons without taking casualties or losing pricey hardware. They should seize the opportunity to learn from observation instead of bloody experience.
In August 2022, Ukrainian rockets slammed into Saki air base in Russian-occupied Crimea, damaging at least nine aircraft. The attack succeeded because Russia had far fewer fortified aircraft shelters than it had planes, leaving much of its air force exposed. As Russia struggled for three years to adapt, Ukraine repeatedly destroyed aircraft with drone attacks. Russia didn’t begin to seriously overhaul air bases with new shelters and hangars until 2025.
Ukraine is still targeting these structures, along with lower-hanging fruit like bridges, oil refineries and railroads, but it’s more difficult to damage dozens of aircraft when they are dispersed and protected.
Kyiv’s campaign against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has taught the Kremlin a similar lesson about leaving valuable military hardware exposed. Much of the fleet has been driven from the Crimean Peninsula, and Russia must now dedicate resources to coastal helicopter patrols to hunt for Ukrainian drones. These helicopters are hunted themselves, threatened by naval drones armed with air-defense missiles. Ukraine is also pioneering unmanned systems that travel completely submerged, a technology the United States, China and other countries are developing.
The U.S. can avoid enduring Russia’s learning curve by more aggressively protecting air and sea assets before they get pummeled. Advanced American planes and ships can cost billions of dollars. Defense planners should make significant investments in protecting these assets from attack and observation. China has already taken steps to fortify its airfields using huge quantities of concrete — enough to pave a four-lane highway from D.C. to Chicago. Iranian attacks on U.S. aircraft housed at bases in the Middle East have further demonstrated the damage that a resource-limited enemy can do when aircraft are left exposed on the ground.
U.S. naval vessels, both in port and on patrol, should be prepared to detect and confront threats under the water, on the surface and from the air at scale. That’s what countering modern drone threats requires. Personnel working to support American naval vessels should also be trained to recognize and respond to innovative new threats, like small naval drones armed with missiles, or swarms of airborne drones saturating defenses.
Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy sites and transportation routes in Crimea also offer lessons on protecting resilient supply chains and ample stocks of munitions.
As technology improves, militaries will have to contend with larger and smarter waves of drones targeting key sites. Having the right munitions, and enough of them, to confront these threats is essential. Even more vital is the speed with which a country can repair a damaged site. Ukraine knows this, which is why it targets the most complex and expensive components in Russian oil facilities to maximize the time they are offline.
The U.S. lacks the deep manufacturing bases of countries like China that can churn out replacement parts quickly. Even peacetime crises like the pandemic showed Americans how supply chains can seize up, especially those relying on overseas shipments. In a potential conflict, such as one with China, many of these supply chains could grind to a halt.
For Russia, these lessons are being learned late. Swaths of Crimea are without power, gas stations have long lines, and ferry crossings used by the Russian military are under attack. Even if Ukraine does not take back Crimea anytime soon, Kyiv is drawing Russian resources and focus to the peninsula.
The U.S. military has already adopted and deployed successful Ukrainian offensive tactics and innovations, including new models of aerial and naval drones. But American operations in Iran have offered a disturbing preview of what can happen when air and naval facilities are insufficiently protected. Ukraine’s innovation in modern warfare has allowed the U.S. to see the future of the battlefield without suffering the same terrible cost.
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