Even as Cait Conley took the stage Tuesday night to thunderous cheers from her supporters celebrating her primary win in a critical House swing district in New York’s Hudson Valley, she wasted little time dwelling on her victory.
“America is at a crossroads,” she said somberly. “Who we are as America, the values that define us, the future that we hold — all of that is on the line.”
Defending those ideals, she said, would mean not only toppling Representative Mike Lawler, the two-term Republican congressman she will face in November, but also sending a message to Washington.
“This has never been about right and left,” Ms. Conley, a combat veteran and national security expert, said. “It’s about right and wrong.”
The focus of the political world in New York now turns from several bruising and expensive intraparty battles in New York City and its suburbs to a series of high-stakes contests between Democrats and Republicans in the Hudson Valley, upstate New York and on Long Island.
In the balance is party control of the House of Representatives next year, and, if the Democrats were to prevail, the likelihood of Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic Party leader in the House who is from Brooklyn, becoming speaker.
Democrats believe that Ms. Conley is one of the candidates best positioned nationally to beat an incumbent Republican. Consequently, they are gearing up to spend millions on advertising and voter outreach to beat Mr. Lawler, who has proved himself to be a canny political fighter.
Shortly after her win was cemented, Mr. Lawler challenged Ms. Conley to six debates and said her “overly scripted sound bites” are “not going to win the nation’s most-watched congressional race.” On Tuesday night, Ms. Conley said she looked forward to debating.
In the 2024 presidential campaign, Kamala Harris narrowly won in Mr. Lawler’s district, which encompasses Rockland and Putnam Counties, as well as parts of Westchester and Dutchess Counties.
“Lawler’s seat, until proven otherwise, is the center of the competitive battlefield both in New York and potentially nationwide,” said Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor for Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter.
That seat, in the 17th Congressional District, is not the only one Democratic officials are looking to flip after Tuesday’s primary.
In the state’s North Country, Republican voters selected Anthony Constantino, the chief executive of a sticker company who was endorsed by President Trump. But state and local Republican leaders had supported Assemblyman Robert Smullen, who also has the Conservative Party of New York’s backing.
Mr. Smullen has suggested that he may stay in the race on the Conservative Party line, telling reporters on Tuesday that he would decide in the coming days.
The seat in the 21st Congressional District, now held by Representative Elise Stefanik, who is stepping down at the end of the year, has been safely Republican. But if Mr. Smullen remains on the ballot, it could split Republican votes and allow Blake Gendebien, a conservative Democrat and a dairy farmer, to win in November.
William O’Reilly, a Republican political consultant who also works with the Conservative Party, said “a lot of Republicans will vote against Constantino,” adding that Mr. Constantino’s chances would be hurt if Mr. Smullen were to stay in the race.
“That’s going to be a Democratic seat,” Mr. O’Reilly added.
President Trump won the 21st District by 21 percentage points in 2024, illustrating the challenge for Democrats. But the results on Tuesday and possible fallout from President Trump’s economic policies gave Jay Jacobs, the New York State Democratic Party Committee chairman, hope that the party might have a real shot at winning Ms. Stefanik’s seat.
“I think Trump has done the North Country no favors with the tariffs and with how he has treated Canada,” Mr. Jacobs said. “That and a whole assortment of factors could contribute to a possible Democratic win.”
The final congressional battleground in New York will be on Long Island, where Democrats suffered a series of damaging losses four years ago that caused them to lose control of Congress. At the time, an unpopular Democratic president and governor conspired to drag down local candidates.
Now, incumbent candidates like Representatives Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen, Democrats who both represent Nassau County, appear to be in stronger positions to hold their seats. Mr. Suozzi will face Mike LiPetri, a former Republican state legislator.
Mr. LiPetri came within three points of defeating Mr. Suozzi in 2024, raising the Republicans’ hopes of reclaiming Mr. Suozzi’s seat. Although Mr. LiPetri easily beat Greg Hach on Tuesday, he may still bear some battle scars from a primary where Mr. Hach amplified a report in Newsday about embellishments on Mr. LiPetri’s résumé, which refers to his achievements prosecuting criminals for the Eastern District of New York while he was, in fact, an intern who had not yet taken the bar exam.
The allegations may ring familiar to the district: The last Republican to hold that seat was George Santos, who was eventually expelled from Congress after his lies and criminal misdeeds became public.
Mr. O’Reilly, who had been working with Mr. Hach, said that there was a good deal of “Trump fatigue” across the state, but ultimately voters’ frustrations with high taxes and soaring costs for housing and utilities could end up working in Republicans’ favor — particularly on Long Island.
“The question is where inflation is going to be in September and October,” Mr. O’Reilly said.
Ms. Gillen will square off against Jeanine Driscoll, a little-known local tax receiver who only entered the race after Anthony D’Esposito, a Trump administration official and former Republican congressman, chose not to run.
Suffolk County has been rougher terrain of late for Democrats, who will be running Chris Gallant, a former military pilot who is challenging Representative Nick LaLota, and Patrick Halpin, a longtime local official who is challenging Representative Andrew Garbarino.
With Gov. Kathy Hochul facing a Republican from Long Island — the Nassau County executive, Bruce Blakeman — Republican leaders hope their party can repeat its 2022 performance, when Ms. Hochul was opposed by Lee Zeldin, then a Long Island congressman. But Democrats believe that Mr. Trump’s low approval ratings can counter whatever advantage congressional candidates gain from having a local official like Mr. Blakeman at the top of the ticket.
”I do not see us losing seats on the Island this year,” Mr. Jacobs, the state party chairman, said of Democrats’ prospects on Long Island.
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