When Andy Burnham, a popular politician in Britain’s Labour Party, won a parliamentary seat on Thursday, it was effectively the starting gun for the race to try and replace Keir Starmer as the country’s prime minister.
But the process could take several weeks, if not longer. The timing will depend on several factors:
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How might Mr. Burnham challenge the prime minister? Mr. Burnham, who has been mayor of Greater Manchester for nine years, has made no secret of his leadership ambitions, but he has not said when or how he will make it official. Several times last month, he said he would “join” a leadership contest, suggesting that he would wait until someone else within Labour challenged Mr. Starmer directly. Other candidates could also run, including Wes Streeting, who resigned as Mr. Starmer’s health secretary last month.
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Will Mr. Burnham use the momentum from his victory? Many observers believe that Mr. Burnham would be foolish to wait too long, given his resounding win on Thursday. Mr. Burnham could challenge Mr. Starmer as early as next week, when he is expected to arrive in London for the first time as the member of Parliament representing Makerfield, in northern England. But Mr. Burnham’s camp says it wants to avoid a messy fight. Louise Haigh, a Labour lawmaker and ally of Mr. Burnham, told the BBC on Friday that they wanted the process to be “as managed and controlled as possible.” She added: “I would hope that Andy and the prime minister can speak over the coming days. We want to avoid a leadership contest if possible.”
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What will Mr. Starmer do? The prime minister said on Friday morning that he would fight any leadership challenge, saying: “I’m not going to walk away from that.” A full-blown Labour leadership election could take weeks to conduct. Many Labour lawmakers hope, like Ms. Haigh, that Mr. Starmer will quickly concede that he has to go, either immediately, or — more likely — on a timetable for a smooth transition. One idea being floated is that whoever wins the right to replace Mr. Starmer as party leader could be formally installed at the party’s annual conference in September.
Whatever happens, other British voters would not have a say. In Britain, if the party in power changes its leader through its own internal process, the new leader becomes prime minister. (Officially, the king invites that leader to form a government, but that is a ceremonial step.)
After Boris Johnson resigned as the Conservative Party’s leader in 2022, the party’s next two leaders, Liz Truss and later Rishi Sunak, each became prime minister without a general election.
Britain must hold its next general election by 2029. But it could happen earlier than that. Whoever is serving as prime minister can call an early election whenever they think it is most politically advantageous to do so.
Megan Specia contributed reporting.
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