A conservative legend has a “prediction” for November, and it is the opposite of what nearly every forecaster is seeing.
In an email sent on behalf of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, former House speaker Newt Gingrich told his supporters that Republicans are headed for a banner midterm that will leave Democrats reeling.
“When the votes are counted this November, the radical left is going to be in a state of total shock,” the Republican wrote. “We are going to pick up substantial seats in the House and several seats in the Senate.”
He went further, casting the moment in sweeping historical terms. “I believe we have not seen a political moment like this since Thomas Jefferson dismantled the Federalists,” Gingrich wrote. “I mean that seriously.”
The pitch came wrapped in a familiar device: a request that recipients “complete your Official Election Year Republican Policy Assessment,” an NRSC list-building and fundraising tool. Gingrich tied his rosy forecast directly to engagement, telling readers the prediction “is built on one assumption — that Republicans like you are engaged and ready to fight.” He also fired off a string of attacks on Democrats over the border, ICE, voter ID and transgender athletes.
There is just one problem with the prediction: the available evidence points the other way.
The president’s party has historically lost seats in midterm elections, and 2026 is shaping up to follow that pattern. Recent polling has given Democrats a clear edge on the generic congressional ballot, with surveys ranging from a roughly five-point average lead to a 14-point advantage in one PBS/NPR/Marist poll. Trump’s approval has sat underwater, with one Economist/YouGov survey showing 55 percent of voters disapproving of his performance.
Forecasters reflect that tilt. Nonpartisan outlets including the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections show Democrats well positioned to retake the House, where they need a net gain of just three seats. The Senate is friendlier terrain for Republicans, whose map is favorable enough that they are likely to hold the chamber, but even there forecasters have Democrats playing offense in states like Maine and North Carolina, not Republicans surging.
That gap between Gingrich’s confidence and the data is not unusual for a committee email designed to rally the base and harvest contact information. Predicting a shock victory, after all, is a more effective way to spur small-dollar donors and survey responses than conceding the historical headwinds.
Notably, Gingrich’s optimism also clashes with warnings from inside Trump’s own orbit. Trump pollster John McLaughlin recently cautioned that if the party’s blue-collar coalition keeps slipping, Republicans could “lose the House and the Senate.”
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