No Democrat has won the governorship of Iowa since 2006. No Democrat has held a Senate seat here since Tom Harkin retired in 2014. All four of the state’s House seats are held by Republicans.
Yet the combination of a struggling economy, President Trump’s policies and frustration with state leadership has Democrats hopeful of turning the Republican state back into the battleground it was when Barack Obama won it twice.
Democratic primary voters on Tuesday chose the more moderate candidate running for Senate, Josh Turek, a former Paralympian, and elevated the only Democrat holding statewide office, auditor Rob Sand, to run for the office of the retiring governor, Kim Reynolds.
Republicans rebuffed Trump’s endorsement of Representative Randy Feenstra for their party’s nomination for governor, picking a businessman and farmer, Zach Lahn, after a chaotic primary fight that revealed the state G.O.P.’s deep divisions.
In other years, Iowa might not even be on Washington’s radar. The state voted three times for Mr. Trump, and its leaders have enacted some of the most conservative policies in the country on education, abortion and transgender rights.
But the state’s economy has faltered over the past two years, and many voters say they want change. Mr. Trump’s tariffs raised the cost of tractors and fertilizers and upended the state’s vast soybean industry, which lost a critical trading partner in China during the trade war. Tariffs on steel and aluminum also hit manufacturers hard.
Then, prices of gas and fertilizer rose further after the United States attacked Iran in February. And labor has grown scarcer in agribusinesses, including in meatpacking plants that rely heavily on foreign-born workers who Mr. Trump has targeted.
“We are tired of the way Trump is handling our country,” Jacqueline Bradley, 71, who voted in the Democratic primary, said on Tuesday.
Ms. Reynolds is preparing to leave office after nine years with the lowest approval rating of any governor in the country, as rural voters sour on her conservative policies.
Thomas Nash, 65, said he voted for Mr. Trump in the last election but decided to cast his ballot in the Democratic primary on Tuesday.
“It seems like things have turned worse,” said Mr. Nash.
Voters on both sides of the aisle have been critical of Ms. Reynolds’ school vouchers, which use tax dollars to pay for private school tuition. Since the program began in 2023, Iowa’s public schools have lost more than 13,000 students, about 3 percent, and several have closed. That has hit hardest in rural areas, which do not have private schools to use the vouchers on.
Catherine Bloom, a Republican business owner, said she sent her children to public schools and worried they would be drained of funding if the voucher program were expanded.
Iowa is also struggling with rapidly growing rates of cancer, an issue that Mr. Sand has made a focal point of his campaign. Mr. Sand has spoken out against agriculture companies’ efforts to protect themselves from health-related litigation, including accusations that chemical companies failed to warn people about health risks like cancer.
“I don’t think it’s right that rural Americans are getting cancer because of what’s going into our water systems, and that’s tied to the fertilizer companies, and that’s tied to industrial agriculture,” said Charles “Randy” Frescoln, 70, who said he voted Republican but expressed frustration that the party was not addressing the issue.
Those issues, along with the leftward tilt of cities like Des Moines and Iowa City, could make for a powerful combination for Democrats in November. However, as of May 1, Republicans still had nearly 200,000 more registered voters in the state than Democrats.
Ann Hinga Klein contributed reporting from Norwalk, Iowa.
Pooja Salhotra covers breaking news across the United States.
The post Why Democrats Are Hopeful About Making Gains in Iowa appeared first on New York Times.
