The ballot in California’s nonpartisan primary for governor lists dozens of candidates, but polling in recent months has shown three to be consistently at the top: the Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer, and the Republican Steve Hilton. Polls also showed that a fair share of voters were still trying to make up their minds.
A pair of April events consolidated a race that had seemed wide open. On April 5, President Trump endorsed Mr. Hilton, helping him build a major edge over a fellow Republican, Chad Bianco. And on April 12, the former Representative Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race following accusations of sexual assault. He had led in many polls, and much of his support appeared to go to Mr. Becerra and Mr. Steyer.
Since Mr. Swalwell’s exit, more than 20 polls have been fielded. Of the 14 that were fielded independently, six had Mr. Becerra and Mr. Hilton in the top spots; five had Mr. Hilton and Mr. Steyer in the two; two had Mr. Becerra and Mr. Steyer; and one had Mr. Bianco and Mr. Hilton.
Mr. Bianco, a Republican sheriff from Riverside County, had finished in the top two in several other polls earlier in the cycle, causing some to wonder if Democrats would be locked out of the general election. But his support faded once Mr. Trump weighed in.
The former Representative Katie Porter and San Jose’s mayor, Matt Mahan, both of whom are Democrats, have rounded out the top six in recent polls.
Mr. Becerra seemed to be the top beneficiary of the shake-ups to the race in April. In a Kreate Strategies survey conducted in March, he received just 2 percent of the vote. In April, he climbed to 10 percent with the same pollster. In early May, he reached 20 percent, and in late May, he hit 27 percent.
Mr. Steyer and Mr. Hilton also gained ground over that period, with Mr. Steyer rising from 13 percent in March to 20 percent in late May, and Mr. Hilton rising from 19 percent to 26 percent.
Understanding the coalitions of voters behind the leading Democrats can be difficult, as demographic breakdowns in polls come from small samples not intended to be representative. But some patterns have been consistent across surveys, with Mr. Steyer performing better among lower-income and very liberal voters, and Mr. Becerra drawing support from more mainstream liberals. Regionally, Mr. Becerra has fared better in the Bay Area and San Diego, while Mr. Steyer has shown more strength in Los Angeles.
Hispanic voters have also been a key demographic for Mr. Becerra, a son of Mexican immigrants and the former chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Hispanic voters make up around 30 percent of California’s electorate.
The big question on Election Day is how undecided voters will land. The gap between the top three candidates has been small, and most of the recent polling has had around 10 percent of voters still trying to make up their minds. In a race this close, any movement among these voters could prove decisive.
Caroline Soler is a Times researcher focused on collecting and analyzing polling and election data.
The post Polls in California Show a Crowded Governor’s Race With a Clear Top 3 appeared first on New York Times.
