Ethiopia began voting in a general election on Monday in which the country’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, has appeared so confident of victory that he has barely campaigned in person at all.
Mr. Abiy’s Prosperity Party, which won about 90 percent of the vote in the last election, still dominates Ethiopian politics, and the opposition is divided.
Nonetheless, the vote comes at a critical moment for Ethiopia, the second-largest country in Africa by population, after Nigeria.
There are signs that a civil war could start up again in Ethiopia’s northwestern region of Tigray. Also, Mr. Abiy has said repeatedly in recent months that his landlocked country needs a port — and the closest one is on the Red Sea, in Eritrea. That has inflamed tensions between the two countries and stoked fears that they could go to war again.
Here’s a look at the election and why it matters:
What does the election mean for Ethiopia?
The Prosperity Party is expected to win another landslide of seats in the House of People’s Representatives, Ethiopia’s lower house of Parliament. Under the country’s political system, the House then names a prime minister.
The Prosperity Party was formed in 2019 through a merger of other parties that intended to reduce the power of politicians from Tigray, who had led Ethiopia since the 1990s.
This time, the Prosperity Party faces around 50 opposition parties, though none has broad national support. About 50 million of Ethiopia’s roughly 135 million people are registered to vote, according to the country’s National Election Board.
Elections will not take place in any of Tigray’s constituencies, given logistical problems and the region’s dispute with the federal government. It was also unclear how many people would be able to vote in the northern Amhara region and the central Oromo region because the government is fighting insurgencies in both areas.
Who is Abiy Ahmed?
Mr. Abiy, 49, has made a profound impact on Ethiopia since he came to power in 2018, six years after the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who had led the country since 1991.
Under Mr. Abiy’s leadership, the Ethiopian government has taken steps to liberalize the economy and has transformed the center of the capital, Addis Ababa, into a series of sweeping boulevards and glittering high rises. In a measure of the government’s ambition, Ethiopia has also started building what it says will be the largest airport in Africa.
Shortly after coming to power, Mr. Abiy ended a military stalemate with Eritrea that had followed a war between the two countries lasting from 1998 to 2000. For that act of diplomacy, Mr. Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
After voting on Monday in his hometown, Beshasha, in the Oromo region, southwest of the capital, Mr. Abiy told journalists that the elections would lead to “a developed and changed Ethiopia.”
His party has campaigned in part on its economic record. Ethiopia’s gross domestic product grew by 9.2 percent in the 2024-25 fiscal year, according to the World Bank, though the country remains one of the poorest in the region.
What about Tigray?
Mr. Abiy’s reputation as a peacemaker shifted significantly in 2020 as his government, allied with Eritrea, fought a war against Tigray. The conflict’s roots lay in tensions between the federal government and a region whose leaders had dominated the country’s politics under Mr. Meles.
Hundreds of thousands of people were killed and millions more displaced in the war, which was fought amid accusations of atrocities and massacres. The conflict ended with a peace agreement signed in South Africa, but some of its key provisions have not been implemented, leading to strain with political leaders in Tigray.
Mr. Abiy’s government had set up an interim administration in Tigray. But last month, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the region’s main political and military force, replaced the administration’s leader with a regional council led by Debretsion Gebremichael — the man who had led Tigray’s fight against the government.
That move heightened tension with Addis Ababa and led to accusations that the move had violated the peace deal. Mr. Abiy’s government has since moved troops toward the region.
Why does Ethiopia want a port?
Ethiopia conducts most of its imports and exports through neighboring Djibouti, but the government has long said that securing its own access to the Red Sea would facilitate trade and lower costs.
Access to the coast would also offer Ethiopia the opportunity to establish a naval base, bolstering the country’s geopolitical clout. Mr. Abiy has described securing a port as existential.
But those designs have fueled fears of a conflict with Eritrea. The nearest port to Ethiopia’s territory is the Eritrean city of Assab, 40 miles across the border, and the issue has led to deteriorating relations between the two countries.
Matthew Mpoke Bigg is the East Africa bureau chief for The New York Times, based in Nairobi, Kenya.
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