A former aide to President Donald Trump warned that his policies are fueling a rural collapse that could cost Republicans their Senate majority.
For three presidential campaigns, Trump made American farmers a cornerstone of his political coalition, handing out green “Make Our Farmers Great Again” hats at rallies and winning their votes each time, but in 2026, that loyalty is being put to its most severe test yet, wrote conservative activist Marc Short for the Washington Post.
“Things are different now,” wrote Short, who served as Trump’s director of legislative affairs in his first term and was chief of staff to former Vice President Mike Pence. “President Trump’s trade policies have punched farmers in the mouth, and this time there’s no global pandemic to blame.”
Trump’s trade war has landed devastating blows on rural America. Last year, crop farmers lost $34.6 billion, and farm bankruptcies surged to levels not seen since 2020. Fifteen thousand farms closed in 2025 alone, with bankruptcy rates rising 55 percent in 2024, 46 percent in 2025, and a staggering 70 percent through the first five months of this year. Meanwhile, 70 percent of farmers say they can no longer afford all the fertilizer they need, and fuel costs have spiked since the Iran conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz.
The trade war’s toll has been particularly severe in export markets. China slashed imports of American crops and livestock by 63 percent, going six consecutive months without purchasing a single American soybean. Canada, another top buyer, reduced agricultural imports by more than $1 billion amid boycotts of American goods.
The damage is registering in battleground states. In Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina — all agriculture-dependent — Republican candidates are struggling in polls, forcing the Senate GOP’s top super PAC to pour a combined $179 million into races that should be safely Republican.
The White House has responded with $12 billion in one-time farmer relief payments, but analysts say the gesture barely scratches the surface of the losses sustained.
“Political coalitions are not set in stone; they must be won in every cycle,” Short wrote on Monday. “When politicians break their promises or fail to deliver, they will face retribution at the ballot box. American voters don’t have much patience for excuses. They have even less patience for a flailing economy.”
“Trump’s global war on trade risks upending the Republican coalition across the heartland,” he added. “Continuing to ignore the plight of farmers is a risk Republicans shouldn’t tolerate heading into November.”
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