The Trump administration often presents mass deportations as zero-sum: Fewer jobs for illegal immigrants means more, or at least higher-paid, jobs for citizens. In fact, deportations are likely to cost jobs for Americans.
That’s according to a recent paper by researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder. The authors took advantage of the administration’s uneven immigration enforcement around the country last year to conduct natural experiments on how it affects labor markets. They found that deportations reduced employment among male, American-born workers without a college degree by 1.3 percent across four immigrant-heavy industries: agriculture, construction, manufacturing and wholesale.
The study found no evidence that wages increased.
There’s a simple economic explanation for this: Illegal immigrant workers in these fields are not necessarily substitutes for their American-born peers; they are often complements. That is, these jobs often depend on one another to exist.
If a construction company cannot find laborers to do carpentry work because immigration officers are arresting them, they will pursue fewer projects. That means hiring fewer workers with other skills.
The paper’s findings undermine a common misconception, on the right and left, that employers are sitting on piles of money and could simply raise wages to fix a labor crunch. Yet the availability of skilled workers is often more of a limiting factor than the amount of money an employer pays them.
Further, these industries — especially construction — are highly competitive. If costs suddenly rise, employers will have a harder time making a profit, which makes business ventures riskier. Developers are already dealing with higher material costs because of tariffs on crucial goods, such as steel, aluminum and lumber. Higher labor costs further squeeze balance sheets.
The study is consistent with previous research, including during the Obama administration, showing that immigration crackdowns dampen employment. The American Immigration Council estimated that immigrants generated about $1.7 trillion in economic activity in 2023 while paying hundreds of billions of dollars in taxes.
This isn’t to say that U.S. policy should ignore illegal immigration, but it does underscore the unintended consequences of Trump’s tactics. Shunning foreign-born workers weakens the economy for everyone, whereas making it easier for them to legally fill open positions would unlock growth.
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