Three of the most closely watched contests on Tuesday will be the Republican primaries for U.S. Senate seats in Georgia, Alabama and Kentucky. Polling suggests all three races are competitive. In Georgia and Alabama, the races feature three strong contenders, and candidates must receive more than 50 percent to win outright and avoid a runoff election in June against the second-place finisher.
Representative Buddy Carter, Representative Mike Collins and Derek Dooley, a political newcomer, have consistently taken the top three spots in the polls in Georgia, where the winner will face Senator Jon Ossoff in the general election. Mr. Collins has led every poll fielded since the start of 2025. Mr. Dooley has seen a boost in the two most recent polls after having previously trailed Mr. Carter.
In nearly all of the recent surveys, more than a quarter of voters were undecided, including 54 percent in the University of Georgia poll from late April. If these undecided voters were to break heavily toward any of the three candidates, the race could be scrambled or there could be an outright winner.
In Alabama, the winner of the Republican primary will be heavily favored in the general election. No candidate has won majority support in recent polling, and if that holds up on Tuesday, the race would go to a runoff on June 16. Recent independent surveys have shown rising support for Jared Hudson, a business executive and former Navy SEAL, after months of him routinely placing third behind Representative Barry Moore and Steve Marshall, the state’s attorney general.
The partisan nature of several other polls is a major factor to consider. One showed rising support for Mr. Marshall, but it was sponsored by Alabama Strong PAC, a group aligned with Mr. Marshall’s campaign. And a Peak Insights poll from last month, in which Mr. Moore was ahead by 18 percentage points, was sponsored directly by Mr. Moore.
In Kentucky, where Senator Mitch McConnell is retiring, polls initially pointed to a very close race in the Republican primary between Daniel Cameron, a former attorney general of the state, and Representative Andy Barr. Mr. Barr began to build a consistent polling lead after another candidate, Nate Morris, dropped out to take an unspecified role in the Trump administration and endorsed Mr. Barr. President Trump also then endorsed Mr. Barr.
The most recent polls, however, offer limited insight, as one was sponsored by Mr. Barr and the other was sponsored by Keep America Great PAC, a group that is affiliated with Mr. Barr’s campaign. Only three of the nine polls fielded this year have been from groups that are not connected to one of the candidates, who can choose to release polls selectively to build a particular narrative.
Caroline Soler is a Times researcher focused on collecting and analyzing polling and election data.
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