U.S. military and intelligence agencies have increased surveillance flights around and near Cuba in recent weeks, several U.S. officials said. The effort is part of a publicly visible campaign experts say is aimed at sending Cuban authorities a message: we’re watching you.
Navy and Air Force surveillance planes and drones have increased reconnaissance flights as part of what is expected to be a larger overall military buildup in the Caribbean in the coming weeks, two of the U.S. officials said. They and the other officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence or operational matters.
For weeks, aviation enthusiasts have shared social media posts about reconnaissance planes, such as the P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, spotted on public tracking websites approaching Cuban shores.
Flights by that model, the RC-135 Rivet Joint electronic-eavesdropping plane, the MQ-4 high-altitude reconnaissance drone and other drones have increased in frequency since February, often near Cuba’s coast, a U.S. military official said.
CNN, which reported the increased intelligence flights, said it analyzed publicly available FlightRadar 24 data showing that the Navy and Air Force had conducted at least 25 such flights using manned aircraft and drones since early February. Most were near Cuba’s two biggest cities, Havana, the capital, and Santiago de Cuba, in the southeastern part of the country.
Flight tracking data typically does not pick up spy agency drones, making the actual number of flights unknown.
Experts say the United States has historically conducted few surveillance flights near Cuba despite decades of poor relations between the two countries, making the recent spate of flights notable.
U.S. Southern Command, which directs military forces and activities in the region, declined to comment.
The Cuban government did not respond to requests for comment.
The U.S. military official said the surveillance flights were designed to give American political and military leaders greater insights into Cuba at a critical moment.
President Trump has made clear that he wants to topple the Cuban government, saying that he will do whatever he wants with Cuba. In a recent speech in Palm Beach County, Florida, he said the United States would be “taking over almost immediately.” He has peppered his comments with periodic warnings that Cuba’s communist government was “next.”
But the military official said that unlike the run-up to the U.S. commando raid in January that seized President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, these surveillance flights were meant to bolster the political and economic pressure campaign on Cuban leaders rather than foreshadow a U.S. military operation on the island.
Amid the heightened tensions between the United States and Cuba, the Trump administration has cut off oil shipments to the island, deepening the country’s energy and economic crisis.
The two sides have been engaged in private negotiations, but the talks have made little progress, the Cuban government has said.
Reconnaissance flights, experts said, could be used to eavesdrop on Cuban government communications and determine if officials are building up troops or military vehicles. Cuba’s government has said country was prepared to fight for its sovereignty.
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But such intelligence missions are often done in secret. The use of publicly visible aircraft shows the U.S. government seems interested in intimidating Cuban government officials and making them wonder if military action could be forthcoming, the experts said.
“We can go completely dark,” said José Adán Gutiérrez, a retired U.S. Navy commander who specialized in intelligence. “When preparing for operations, we go completely dark, we don’t turn on the radar to announce our arrival. The fact that these flights were purposely made public basically indicates that there is a message.”
The Venezuelan government denounced similar intelligence flights in the weeks before U.S. military forces swooped into the Venezuela’s capital and captured the country’s president.
Mr. Gutiérrez and several other experts said the message was likely meant not just for Cuba, but for Cuban allies like Russia and China. He said the flights do not necessarily mean the United States is preparing to invade Cuba, but that officials were updating contingency plans should Mr. Trump issue any orders on Cuba.
Renee Novakoff, a retired U.S. intelligence officer, said the flights indicated that officials could be preparing to make a policy decision.
“Normally we don’t do a lot of things like what they are doing,” said Ms. Novakoff, who retired three years ago as deputy director of Defense Intelligence and is now a senior fellow at Florida International University. “That’s why this is a big deal.”
Chris Simmons, a former Defense Intelligence Agency counterintelligence officer for Cuba, said the U.S. government does not need to go to such extremes to spy on a country with so few operational Navy vessels that could be used to repel an incursion. That, he said, gives the missions an appearance of saber rattling.
“I see it as a demonstration of force more than anything else,” Mr. Simmons said, adding, however, that Mr. Trump often follows up in his threats.
In recent weeks, Cuban officials have criticized the U.S. military buildup, which they described as part of a criminal campaign against the country.
“The visible effort to normalize the threat of US military aggression against Cuba is part of a coldly calculated communications strategy,” Carlos Fernández de Cossío, Cuba’s deputy foreign minister, said on X.
“It is part of the crime, and those who participate in it would be complicit in the eventual blood bath.”
At the beginning of the Trump administration last year, the C.I.A. intensified drone flights over Mexico, helping track fentanyl labs and cartel leaders. A U.S. surveillance drone was used to help locate Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, the longtime leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel.
The C.I.A. also flew drones over Venezuela, and used one of its drones to conduct an airstrike on a dock where drugs were allegedly being loaded onto boats.
While military planes fly over international waters, intelligence agencies do not operate under such restrictions when collecting information. However, given the geography of Cuba, it may not have been necessary to fly an intelligence asset directly over the country.
Brian Latell, a former C.I.A. analyst for Cuba, said he does not recall such a flurry of reconnaissance even during the Cold War.
The U.S. government could also be trying to determine the location of a potential landing site, he said.
“The major objective would be intelligence collection,” Mr. Latell said. “There is probably also an element of poking at them and keeping them a little bit anxious.”
Reporting was contributed by Tyler Pager from Washington and Patricia Mazzei from Miami.
Frances Robles is a Times reporter covering Latin America and the Caribbean. She has reported on the region for more than 25 years.
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