Donald Trump’s attempts to throw his weight around and influence a handful of Republican primaries is falling flat with voters and donors who are not willing to back his pushback at GOP incumbents who have forged their own paths.
According to a report from Politico’s Liz Crampton, Lisa Kashinsky and Alec Hernandez, hand-picked candidates that the president tabbed to take on rogue Republicans like Rep. Tom Massie (R-KY) and Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) are not catching fire with primary voters — a sign of the president’s waning influence as he heads into the lame duck years of his second term.
Trump’s power as the GOP’s kingmaker now faces a major test with this month’s primaries, and so far, he’s on “rocky footing,” Politico is reporting.
Trump’s primary intervention campaign kicks off in Indiana, where he’s targeting eight Republican state legislators who blocked his redistricting effort. The push then moves to Louisiana and Kentucky, where he’s backing challengers to two longtime foes he’s been itching to unseat for years. He’s also selected preferred candidates in crowded GOP primaries for Alabama Senate and Georgia governor. Some Republicans — even those involved in the races themselves — are suggesting that Trump’s struggling slate of endorsed candidates indicates his ability to move his base en masse is beginning to fracture. The MAGA movement, they argue, may be developing a mind of its own as the party begins looking beyond the Trump era. “He’s hit his max power and now you’re seeing the backside of that power curve,” former GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a frequent target of Trump’s wrath, told Politico. “This will be his last competitive election cycle that will have any impact on him. And I think the base is starting to think into the future.” A GOP operative working on the Alabama Senate race put it more bluntly: “The [Trump] endorsement just isn’t moving voters. It just isn’t. When you’ve endorsed more than 800 people in 10 years, the potency of an individual endorsement wanes.” In Kentucky, Massie has withstood Trump’s onslaught entirely, the report notes. He leads his rival, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, in polling, fundraising, and name identification. One recent survey showed that half of likely voters in his deep-red, libertarian-leaning district preferred an independent-minded lawmaker, compared to just 37 percent who wanted a strong Trump supporter. Perhaps the clearest evidence that MAGA-aligned voters is making decisions without Trump’s explicit approval is on fill display in Texas, where Republicans have rallied around scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton. Current polling shows that a Trump endorsement for Cornyn at this point likely wouldn’t sway voters significantly — and Paxton would maintain his edge. GOP Texas consultant Vinny Minchillo acknowledged to Politico, that if Trump decides to weigh in for Cornyn, “he will have to sell this to the faithful and tell them exactly what to do. Especially if he endorses Cornyn.”
Trump’s endorsement still matters, Minchillo conceded, but with the caveat, “less so with each day that passes.”
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