Usually your spring break tan has faded before you need to turn your attention to the next big getaway, summer vacation. But not this season.
The war in Iran has created a sense of urgency in trip planning, a race against rising airfares and vanishing routes. For nearly two months, the Strait of Hormuz, a critical highway for the global oil market, has been closed or severely disrupted. Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled, sending the aviation industry into triage mode.
Last week, the head of the International Energy Agency warned that Europe’s jet fuel supply could run dry within six weeks, according to the Associated Press. To conserve fuel and offset the escalating expense, airlines are slashing routes, suspending seasonal service and increasing supplemental fees and airfares.
The dire situation is putting pressure on travelers with or without summer reservations. Vacationers who have not yet booked their flights could be priced out of a destination or face slim pickings in terms of flight dates and times. Travelers with plane tickets may have to adjust their trips if the airline changes or cancels the itinerary to conserve fuel.
“This hurts everybody,” said Henry Harteveldt, an aviation industry analyst and founder and president of Atmosphere Research Group. “It is going to affect business travel. It is going to affect leisure travel. It is disrupting global commerce.”
To help travelers navigate this fraught landscape, we compiled the most critical information for summer vacation planning.
I haven’t booked my summer trip yet. Am I out of luck?
You still have time but, depending on your travel dates and destination, you may need to act swiftly and decisively.
“You definitely want to take advantage of the price and the availability as soon as you can,” said Sara Rathner, credit card expert with NerdWallet. “Lock in those plans and then keep checking back in later to see if other options exist.”
This advice sharply diverges from the “Goldilocks Rule,” the golden standard for finding cheap fares. In more typical times, peak summer travelers should book three to seven months in advance of a domestic trip and four to 10 months before an international journey.
“That sort of went out of the window,” said Katy Nastro, a travel expert with Going. “The cheapest seats have been elevated. I don’t see a reality where we could see flight prices, especially to places like Europe, drop dramatically.”
Nastro said people hoping to travel during the first half of summer should book immediately, before airlines further ratchet fares or cut or consolidate routes.
“Timing matters, especially for international travel,” she said. “You want to get those tickets booked before we start seeing cuts come into play, which can bump up fares even higher because there’s less competition and less availability.”
Since the start of the war on Feb. 28, a growing number of foreign and domestic airlines have slashed routes or suspended seasonal service. The latest batch of carriers to announce changes to their schedules include Norse Atlantic Airways, the Norwegian budget carrier; Edelweiss, part of Lufthansa Group; Air Canada; and Delta.
Is it worth traveling later in the season?
Travel experts recommend travelers delay their trips to later in the summer, when jet fuel could be flowing freely again. They are also seeing lower prices further out.
According to Going data, domestic fares are averaging $754 in June and $579 in August. Nastro said the last two weeks of August are especially favorable, boasting the cheapest domestic and international fares of the summer.
If you can push your trip to shoulder season, even better. Nastro said she has not seen any deals yet, but is hopeful.
“We still believe that there is an opportunity for those to happen,” she said. “It just depends on how long this all lasts.”
Which regions have the highest airfares?
Airlines in Europe, Asia and Oceania have been hiking up fares or implementing fuel surcharges since the early days of the war. As the conflict stretches on, the list continues to grow longer: Cathay Pacific, Japan Airlines, All Nippon Airways, Qantas, Scandinavian Airlines, Air France-KLM, Thai Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Virgin Australia and Air New Zealand, among others.
Because of these regions’ heavy reliance on oil from the Middle East, the strait blockade has squeezed their carriers more than U.S. airlines.
“The areas that seem to have the most pronounced fuel shortages right now are Europe and Asia,” Harteveldt said. “That doesn’t mean it won’t affect other parts of the world. But right now, it appears that the shortages will be the most severe in Europe and Asia.”
However, Harteveldt said domestic airlines have been quietly increasing their prices, too. Medium-haul and transcontinental flights, for example, are generally $50 or more in each direction.
“If you’re looking at a transatlantic flight, a transpacific flight or even a domestic flight, you’re going to notice that in most cases, it is far more expensive than a few months ago, before the war began,” Harteveldt said.
Airfares are fluid, but Nastro has seen a sharp uptick in fares to Europe and more moderate rises — and even plateaus — elsewhere.
“We’re seeing prices to places like Milan and Paris up around 20 percent to 25 percent year over year, whereas prices to Punta Cana are up less than 2 percent and those to Cancún are just about flat,” she said.
On a more granular level, Deutsche Bank’s Airline Fare Monitor tracks the roller-coaster ride of weekly fares. In its most recent report, it noted that 21-day advance fares in more than 500 city pairs were higher week-over-week on transatlantic, intra-West Coast and Latin America routes.
The fare data is for May 8, several weeks before the airline industry normally jacks up fares for the summer rush.
Can airlines increase the price on a booked ticket?
A Spanish budget airline named Volotea recently caused a stir when it reportedly charged passengers an extra fuel charge after they had purchased their tickets, according to Reuters. A Spanish consumer rights group requested an investigation into the surcharge of up to $16.50, which it claims violates consumer protection laws.
Harteveldt said a retroactive change to a fare is unusual and unethical. If this happens, he recommends disputing the charge with the carrier or your credit card company. You should also raise the issue to the Transportation Department.
According to the DOT’s Aviation Consumer Protection rules, the airline must notify the customer of an increase in a government-imposed tax or fee on a purchased ticket. The consumer must consent to the adjusted fare.
It’s important to note that fuel surcharges are not levied by a government but are administered by the airlines, creating a Wild West for extra industry fees.
How can I avoid sneaky fees?
Airfares and fuel surcharges are nonnegotiable, but passengers can save money by avoiding supplemental fees, such as seat selection and checked bags.
To counter skyrocketing fuel expenses, airlines have been increasing fees for add-on services and amenities. For instance, the major domestic carriers recently raised their checked baggage fees.
If possible, skip these extra comforts. Instead, at the gate, ask the agent whether a better seat is available. If the staff seeks volunteers to gate check their bags for no additional cost, raise your hand.
Which destinations have deals?
Open your mind to offseason beach destinations such as Florida, Mexico and the Caribbean. Fares to these traditionally winter and spring break spots are relative bargains in the summer, even during a fuel crisis.
Going highlighted a handful of deals to tropical locales with savings of up to 60 percent. Its sample set includes Syracuse, New York, to Port-of-Spain, Trinidad, for $350 round trip; Norfolk to Aruba for $359; New Orleans to Cancún for $244; and Chicago to Orlando for $186.
Similarly, Kayak has noted a downward trend in prices to Miami; San Juan, Puerto Rico; San José, Costa Rica; and Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. Skyscanner’s list of cheapest alternative destinations features a few southern spots as well, such as Punta Gorda, Florida, and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
Many of these coastal areas come with weather risks. In addition to the sweltering heat, hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs through November.
To stay out of the hurricane belt, consider the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao) or Canada. On Kayak’s new airfare trends dashboard, average fares from the U.S. to Toronto and Vancouver have been spiraling down since a high on March 26.
What are some strategies for finding lower fares?
Bookending a trip with weekends allows you to stretch your summer vacation time. However, departing on a Sunday will cost you about 16 percent more, Nastro said.
For vacation destinations, fares are often less during the midweek, early in the morning or late at night.
When choosing a fare category, the cheapest tier — basic economy — might seem like the obvious choice. Yet, it’s not always the most economical for people who need more flexibility. The restrictive fare doesn’t allow seat selection or, on United, a free carry-on bag. Passengers must board last and can’t change their flight without incurring a penalty.
During these unpredictable times, travel experts recommend a fare with more wiggle room, such as standard economy. If the fare drops, many airlines will credit you the price difference, as long as you are flying on an eligible ticket.
You can also save money by patching together different types of carriers or modes of transportation. If you are traveling to Europe, book the transatlantic legs on a major carrier and then switch to the ultra-low-cost carriers, such as Wizz and Ryanair, for the shorter hops between countries.
To keep transportation costs even lower, take a train or bus. Air France and KLM International sell a combo plane-and-train ticket from participating stations in France and Belgium. At Paris-Charles De Gaulle in Paris and Amsterdam-Schiphol, arriving travelers can pick up France’s high-speed train, the TGV, from inside the airport.
“You can get creative about your final destination, because travel within Europe via train is so much more robust than it is in the States,” Rathner said.
If you choose to rent a car instead of fly, take into account the cost of the rental vehicle plus insurance, gas, tolls and parking. If your destination has a well-connected public transportation system or pedestrian-friendly walkways, consider renting the car only for the days you need it.
To compare cars and planes, plug your itinerary into Kayak’s trip calculator. For a sample July trip in Italy, the tool recommends driving instead of flying from Venice to Florence. Two travelers can save $61 each, enough for matching leather bags.
The post Don’t panic about summer flight prices yet. Here’s what to do. appeared first on Washington Post.
