Donald Trump’s Iran negotiations are collapsing under the weight of incompetence with Middle East experts openly dismissing the negotiating team of Manhattan real estate developers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, saying they’re completely out of their depth on one of the world’s most complex geopolitical stages. According to interviews with Time, diplomats are unanimous in their assessment: the team lacks the fundamental understanding necessary to navigate Middle East complexities. “Iran and the U.S. under [Trump son-in-law] Kushner and Witkoff? Failure. They get an F in diplomacy,” observed former U.S. State Department Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller. Their track record speaks for itself, Miller explained as he pointed to Kushner and Witkoff’s failed Russia-Ukraine negotiations and their stalled efforts between Israel and Hamas as evidence of unrelenting incompetence. “While even the most experienced negotiators would face steep challenges in such conflicts, Kushner and Witkoff failed to convey to either side the sense of urgency that a desirable deal was within reach—an essential condition for pushing negotiations forward.” “You accept the notion that a successful negotiation, if you have urgency, is based on finding some balance of interest between the parties. If you want out of this, I think they’re going to have to come up with something that allows the Iranians to say they won something,” he elaborated. Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey David Satterfield outlined what actual competent negotiations require, telling Time, “Not only does the U.S. need to make clear what its goals were, and to know internally where it was prepared to concede, and where it was not prepared to concede, where the line would be held, the red lines, but to have a realistic sense of what the other side was bringing with it.” A grasp of nuclear diplomacy also brings a whole new level of complexity.
Former senior State Department official Robert Einhorn warned that “the negotiator at the table has to think about how the domestic audiences will affect the outcome. And I think the negotiator on a nuclear issue is more constrained by his or her government bureaucracy and by public opinion.” The deepest problem is systemic: Trump surrounds himself with yes-men incapable of honest counsel, which Miller identified as Trump’s fatal flaw in personnel selection: “There is a discussion in which the president’s advisors talk truth to power and basically say to him…’You’ve got the ultimate control. But if you’re going to do this, this is exactly what is likely to happen. And in my judgment…if you do this, you might fail.’” But such candor requires advisers willing to risk consequences. “Trump had four secretaries of defense in his first term. He had six national security advisors [during his two terms]. They know what happens if they embarrass the president or they become a problem.”
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