Iran can enrich enough uranium for a nuclear weapon within weeks. The options to stop Iran from getting a bomb, if it so chooses, are through a nuclear deal like the one President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2018 or with overwhelming military force.
“There are two ways Iran can be handled, militarily or you can make a deal. I would prefer to make a deal,” Trump said in a March 6 interview with Fox News. The US, he said, has “a situation with Iran that’s going to happen very soon, very, very soon.”
Early signs of a deal were inauspicious. Trump dialed up the pressure on Iran after US strikes on the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen over the weekend, warning in a Monday Truth Social post that “every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN.”
Israel could attempt pre-emptive strikes, but they would likely need US airpower in what would be a major escalation if they aimed to demolish Iran’s underground facilities for weapons-grade uranium, according to military analysts.
To wipe out Iran’s nuclear facilities, US and Israel would need to carry out repeated strikes with stand-off weapons like cruise missiles, Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, told Business Insider.
Such strikes could also require the Northrop B-2 Spirit stealth bomber. The B-2 is the only aircraft that can carry the US’s 15-ton GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the largest US bunker buster, and one of the most powerful non-nuclear bombs. A B-2 notably bombed hardened underground weapon sites belonging to the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen in October.
“It would be a major milestone in the history of warfare should we see a joint Israeli-US strike on Iran,” Bohl said. “It would give us insight into how such (American-made) systems might also perform against, say, Russia and China, whose systems are in some ways similar to that of Iran’s.”
The United Nations Security Council discussed Iran’s enrichment of uranium near weapons-grade level in a closed meeting on Wednesday. The US accused Iran of “flagrantly” defying the council over its rapid uranium enrichment.
Amid the back and forth between the Trump administration and Iran, a US Air Force B-52 Stratofortess bomber drilled with Israeli Air Force F-35 stealth jets and F-15 fighters. Both air forces have drilled on numerous occasions in recent years in preparation for a possible attack against Iran.
The largest-ever exercise was Juniper Oak in January 2023, when American and Israeli F-35 stealth jets, drones, and US strategic bombers dropped over 180,000 pounds of live munitions.
“Juniper Oak gave us insight into how a maximum escalation scenario might play out with joint Israel-US operations,” Bohl said.
Why Israel would likely need US bombers
Israel’s fighter fleet consists of fourth-generation American-made F-15 and F-16 jets and more advanced fifth-generation F-35s made by Lockheed Martin. Israel doesn’t have heavy bombers capable of carrying large bunker-buster munitions.
The two primary targets of any strikes would be the Natanz and Fordow underground enrichment facilities. Natanz is deep underground and shielded by reinforced concrete in the central Isfahan province. Satellite imagery taken in 2023 indicated Iran has dug tunnels near the site too deep for even the GBU-57 to damage effectively. Fordow is the country’s second uranium enrichment facility, which Iran dug inside a mountain to build near the holy city of Qom.
US-Israeli airstrikes would have to be part of a larger, complex campaign that also targets Iranian air defenses and ballistic missiles with air and ship-launched munitions, drones, cyberattacks, and possibly limited special operations raids, according to Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute.
Israel already inflicted widespread damage on Iran’s Russian-made S-300 air defenses during its October 26 airstrikes. Another round of strikes, especially with American participation, could prove much more devastating.
“Iran is on the back foot defending its airspace,” RANE’s Bohl said.
While Iran’s antiquated air force is outclassed and outgunned by the USAF and IAF, there are still limits to what the latter’s cutting-edge airpower can achieve, especially if America and Israel are reluctant to conduct a long campaign. And if a US-Israeli campaign does not broadly target Iran’s military arsenal, Tehran could mount substantial retaliation.
For years, the country has possessed the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles in the region. While these missiles failed to inflict significant damage during Iran’s April and October 2024 attacks against Israel, they could still menace US bases in the Middle East or force Israel to expend more of its expensive and finite high-altitude Arrow anti-ballistic missile interceptors in order to fend them off.
Iran has had decades to prepare for such an attack.
It’s possible “Iran is able to weather the worst of it and rebuild,” since bombs and missiles can fail to destroy all of the Iranian centrifuges used to enrich uranium, Bohl said.
Either way, a joint air assault against Iran could prove unprecedented.
“Without a doubt, a joint US-Israel military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program would be one of the largest, and certainly the most technologically advanced, in human history,” New Lines Institute’s Heras said.
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.
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