The odds of an asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 now stand at 1-in-32, or a 3.1 percent chance of collision, according to the latest data from NASA.
On February 7, NASA upped the likelihood of the asteroid striking Earth from 1.2 percent to 2.3 percent. Then the probability went up to 2.6 percent and it was most recently updated to 3.1 percent, according to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.
The Context
Scientists have been steadily tracking the asteroid, 2024 YR4, since it was first discovered on December 27. NASA estimates that the asteroid is 130 to 300 feet in size.
The agency said the asteroid may impact Earth on December 22, 2032. It put 2024 YR4 on a risk list after the asteroid’s impact probability surpassed 1 percent on January 27, triggering an official notification from the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN).
What To Know
The risk corridor for 2024 YR4—the region of Earth that could be impacted—includes the eastern Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Arabian Sea, Africa, South Asia and parts of South America.
That region includes some of the world’s most populous cities, including Bogota in Colombia, Mumbai and Chennai in India and Lagos in Nigeria.
NASA currently has 2024 YR4 at a 3 on the Torino Scale, which is a tool scientists use to understand the threat that near-Earth objects (NEOs) may pose. Objects are given a rating between 0 and 10 on the scale, where 0 means the object poses no risk and 10 means there will almost certainly be a collision with catastrophic consequences.
It’s “uncommon for an asteroid to be rated at Torino Scale 3, because that can only happen for an asteroid larger than 20 meters (65 feet) with an impact probability of 1% or greater, which is quite rare for an object of this size,” NASA said. “Smaller objects have reached higher impact probabilities, even up to 100%, but they are always rated 0 on the Torino Scale because of their size.”
What People Are Saying
Bruce Betts, chief scientist of The Planetary Society, told AFP that 2024 YR4 could be a “city killer” if it hits Earth: “If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs.”
The European Space Agency, which estimates that the asteroid has a 2.4 percent chance of hitting Earth, said in a statement: “An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region.”
What Happens Next
For now, 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth. Scientists will monitor it through April and then again in June 2028, when it returns to Earth’s vicinity.
As scientists continue studying the asteroid’s trajectory and better understand its orbit, the probability of it impacting Earth will likely go down.
“The odds are very good that not only will this not hit Earth, but at some point in the next months to few years, that probability will go to zero,” Betts told AFP.
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