Britain goes to the polls on July 4 for a seismic general election — but Brits living outside the U.K. appear in no particular rush to get involved.
With the deadline to register to vote in the U.K. election looming at midnight Tuesday, official data reveals no big surge in ex-pats signing up compared to previous years — despite new laws which have dramatically increased the franchise for Brits living abroad.
The upcoming election will be the first time British citizens who have lived outside the U.K. for more than 15 years will have the right to vote. It’s also the first time voter ID has been mandated in Scotland, and the first time new constituency boundaries are being used.
The electoral map has — literally — changed significantly since 2019.
These changes will affect where many cast their ballot, the documents they must bring with them, and — in the case of Brits abroad — are estimated to have expanded the possible electorate from around 1 million people to more than 3 million this time round.
Both the Tories and Labour sought to capitalize on this newly-enlarged electorate. Some in Labour believed an anti-Brexit backlash among European ex-pats may help their cause; the Tories hired an “overseas voter registration coordinator” to mobilize their troops.
But thus far, a new wave of expat voters has failed to materialize.
Official data shows that since that rule change on January 16, close to 150,000 online registration applications have been made by British citizens abroad. Patterns show a largely similar trend in applications to register to the past two elections, in 2019 and 2017.
More broadly, voter registration patterns offer an insight into parties’ campaign priorities.
It is well known that some demographic groups are more likely to be registered to vote than others.
The Conservative strategy to appeal to the “gray vote” appears well founded: 96 percent of over 65s in Great Britain were registered to vote in 2022, as were 95 percent of owner occupiers. Conversely, the young, students, and people who have moved house recently are the least likely groups to be registered to vote.
But much can change in the final weeks of campaigning. Over 3.7 million applications to register were submitted in the weeks between the announcement of the 2019 election and the deadline to register.
A significant portion of these applications — around 580,000 in 2017 and 660,000 in 2019 — were submitted on the day of the deadline.
Since the announcement of the 2024 general election on 22 May, more than 2 million registration applications have been submitted in total.
This is lower than during the equivalent period prior to the 2019 election, although a spokesperson for elections quango the Electoral Commission said this may be largely down to timing.
“The level of registration applications is partly a measure of engagement with the poll, but will also be dependent on the time of year and the proximity to other polls,” said Conor Walsh, a senior communications officer with the commission.
“In both 2017 and 2024 the general election follows on from recent May [local] elections, when large numbers will also have updated their registration details.”
The Electoral Commission also told POLITICO that based on data from previous elections, around one in three of the applications submitted could be duplicates from people already on the register.
As with previous elections, younger age groups — typically less likely to already be registered — are responsible for a large share of recent applications to register.
Prospective voters have until 11.59 p.m. Tuesday to get their registration applications in — and not everyone will hit the deadline.
Around 250,000 applications to register were received between the day after the deadline and the date of the 2019 general election — meaning those applicants were unable to vote.
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