MIAMI —The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is set to release this Thursday its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1.
NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) will announce the expected storm activity for the upcoming months, and they’ll explain the climate factors that influence hurricane development. NOAA and FEMA are also expected to provide guidance on how the public can prepare ahead of a potential storm impacting their area.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Other 2024 hurricane season predictions
Researchers from the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project predicted in April an “extremely active” 2024 season, including 23 named storms. Previous years had an average of 14.4 named storms. Their forecast included a 62% chance of a Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall on the continental U.S. coastline, an increase from the average prediction of 43%.
Along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the probability jumped to 34% from 21% – which was the average likelihood from 1880-2020. Along the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle, the increase was higher. Researchers predicted a 42% probability in that area, up from an average of 27% in previous years.
Stephanie Abrams, a meteorologist from The Weather Channel, also presented a similar prediction, telling “CBS Mornings” in March that rising air and ocean temperatures globally could set the stage for an “explosive hurricane season.”
According to NOAA, four of the 15 deadliest and most destructive hurricanes ever recorded happened in the last 25 years.
A look back at the 2023 hurricane season
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season ended as the fourth busiest for most-named storms. It concluded with 20 named storms, seven of which went on to become hurricanes and of those three intensified into major hurricanes.
There were three storms that made landfall in the US. Two tropical storms made landfall, one in Texas and the other in North Carolina.
The only hurricane landfall was Idalia. It made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on Aug. 30 near Keaton Beach, Florida, causing storm surge inundation of 7 to 12 feet and widespread rainfall flooding in Florida and throughout the southeast.
According to NOAA, four of the 15 deadliest and most destructive hurricanes ever recorded happened in the last 25 years.
Hunter Geisel is a Digital Producer at CBS Miami. Hunter has previously produced digital content for local and national outlets, covering several topics from breaking news and current events to politics and pop culture.
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