LONDON — Rishi Sunak just rolled the dice on a summer general election.
It’s taken Westminster by surprise and will pit Sunak’s governing Tories against a Labour Party that’s currently streets ahead in the polls.
POLITICO has a snap guide as Britain gears up for weeks of intense campaigning.
When’s it happening?
Write this down: July 4. The date of the election was always in Sunak’s hands as prime minister — and he has now defied expectations of an autumn or a winter poll. He could have held out months longer.
It’ll be Britain’s first July general election since 1945.
Who’s competing?
The prime minister who emerges from the general election will be either Conservative Rishi Sunak or Labour’s Keir Starmer, barring some major upset.
Sunak has inhabited No.10 Downing Street since October 2022, leading the Tories after Liz Truss’ 49-day tenure led to market turmoil within the lifespan of a lettuce.
He was previously chancellor for much of Boris Johnson’s premiership, delivering the furlough scheme to protect jobs during the Covid-19 pandemic before resigning due to massive divisions with Johnson.
Starmer has led Britain’s opposition Labour party since April 2020 after his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, led the party to its worst election defeat since 1935.
The Labour leader used to be Britain’s top prosecutor and was previously shadow Brexit secretary, responsible for the party’s tilt toward supporting a second EU referendum.
That option is now firmly off the table as Starmer pivots the party toward governing in a post-Brexit world.
What are the polls showing?
The election will be an uphill slog for Sunak. POLITICO’s Poll of Polls has consistently shown a strong double-digit lead for Labour ever since Sunak became prime minister, with no government policies seeming to shift the dial.
The Conservatives have governed since May 2010 and now, with Sunak the party’s fifth prime minister in that time, it’s Labour’s election to lose. The PM can take heart from his predecessor Theresa May, who enjoyed a huge lead ahead of the 2017 election … only to lose her majority.
What are the main issues?
The Tories are keen to show the economy is improving under Sunak’s stewardship after the turbulence of the pandemic (not to mention the Truss debacle.)
Inflation falling to 2.3 percent Wednesday from a high of 11.1 percent when Sunak took office will likely have contributed to the decision to go for a snap election. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has also cut the national insurance jobs tax twice in recent financial statements as part of a long-term goal to abolish it altogether.
Labour will want to focus on Truss’ tenure, which precipitated market turmoil and increased mortgage prices, as a sign the Tories have lost credibility on managing the economy. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves often flaunts her credentials as a former Bank of England economist, with the party reluctant to commit to big spending promises.
While the two parties agree on supporting Ukraine, the Tories pledged to spend 2.5 percent of GDP on defense by the end of the decade. Labour has not committed to a date, instead aspiring to do so “as soon as resources allow.” Labour has also moved toward backing a cease-fire in the Israel-Gaza war and said the U.K. has a “legal obligation” to support the International Criminal Court’s decision to seek an arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a move Rishi Sunak called “deeply unhelpful.”
Sunak’s five priorities, outlined at the start of last year, include stopping small boat crossings on the English Channel, and using Rwanda as a third country for deportation and a deterrent. One of Labour’s first pledges, meanwhile, was to scrap the Rwanda scheme and replace it with a Border Security Command. The Tories will be keen to stress this divide and to present a strong approach on immigration.
What happens to current legislation and the civil service?
Parliament won’t be dissolved for several days as current legislation is either completed or fails to become law during the “wash-up period,” which requires agreement between parties over what goes on the statute books.
But while an election is on, the country still needs to be run. Civil servants are around for day-to-day management but government activity is restricted (under rules known as “purdah”) to ensure public money is not used to support the party in power and to maintain impartiality. The Institute for Government has an insightful guide about how the country is kept ticking over.
When we will know the result?
Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system means the candidate who receives the most votes in each of its 650 constituencies wins, meaning 326 is the magic number for an overall majority.
The results are counted overnight, so unless there’s a hung parliament (where no party wins a majority), the future government, and the next occupant of Downing Street, should be obvious by dawn July 5.
Buckle up.
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