Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain on Wednesday called a snap general election for July 4, throwing the fate of his embattled Conservative Party to a restless British public that appears eager for change after 14 years of Conservative government.
Mr. Sunak’s surprise announcement, from rain-spattered lectern in front of 10 Downing Street, was the starting gun for six weeks of intense campaigning that will render a verdict on a party that has led Britain since Barack Obama was American president. But the Conservatives have discarded four prime ministers in eight years, lurching through the chaos of Brexit, the coronavirus pandemic and a cost-of-living crisis.
With the opposition Labour Party ahead in most polls by double digits for the last 18 months, a Conservative defeat has come to assume an air of inevitability. For all that, Mr. Sunak is calculating that Britain has had just enough good news in recent days — including glimmers of fresh economic growth and the lowest inflation rate in three years — that his party might be able to cling to power.
Political analysts, opposition leaders and members of Mr. Sunak’s own party agree that the electoral mountain he must climb is Himalayan. Burdened by a recession, spiraling prices, a calamitous foray into trickle-down tax cuts, and serial scandals and malfeasance, the Tories have seemed exhausted and adrift in recent years, split by bitter internal feuds and fatalistic about their future.
“The Conservatives are facing a kind of extinction-level event,” said Matthew Goodwin, a professor of politics at the University of Kent who has advised Boris Johnson and other party leaders. “They look like they’re going to suffer an even bigger defeat than they did to Tony Blair in 1997.”
Other political analysts are more cautious: Some pointed out that in 1992, the Conservative government of Prime Minister John Major overcame a deep polling deficit to eke out a narrow victory and stay in power.
But since the party won by a landslide in the 2019 elections on the slogan “Get Brexit done,” the Tories have bled support among young people, traditional Conservative voters in the England’s south and southwest and, crucially, working-class voters in the industrial Midlands and north of England, whose backing in 2019 were the key to then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s landmark victory.
Many are disillusioned by Mr. Johnson, who was forced out after scandals, including Downing Street parties that breached Covid lockdown rules, and even more so by his successor, Liz Truss, who was toppled after just 44 days, following proposed tax cuts that rattled financial markets, caused the pound to torpedo and fractured the party’s reputation for economic competence.
While Mr. Sunak, 44, swiftly steadied the markets and has run a more stable government than his predecessors, critics say he never developed a convincing strategy to recharge the country’s growth. Nor did he fulfill two other promises: to cut waiting times in Britain’s National Health Service and to stop the stream of small boats carrying asylum seekers across the English Channel.
Many voters in the “red wall” districts — so called because of Labour’s campaigning color — appear ready to return to their political roots in the party. Under the competent, if uncharismatic, leadership of Keir Starmer, Labour has shaken off the shadow of his left-wing predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn. Mr. Starmer, a former government prosecutor, has methodically overhauled Labour, purging allies of Mr. Corbyn, uprooting a legacy of anti-Semitism in the party’s ranks, and pulling its economic policies more to the center.
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