LONDON — British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will call a new election for July 4, British media reported Wednesday, setting his ruling Conservative Party the challenge of overturning dismal polling if it is to retain its 14-year hold on power against the high-flying opposition Labour Party.
Electoral law in the United Kingdom means the vote had to be held sometime before Jan. 28 next year. Sunak previously said he hoped to call the ballot in the second half of 2024 — and an announcement expected to come within the next hour would confirm that will be the case.
Though the prime minister was legally bound to call the election, the timing came as something of a surprise, not least because victory will be a tall task.
His traditionally center-right Conservative Party has governed since 2010 and dominated postwar politics in the crucial U.S. ally.
But the past three years have brought turmoil and scandal — from the norm-busting premiership of Boris Johnson to Liz Truss’ quixotic clash with global markets — coupled with public dismay over the stagnant economy, crumbling infrastructure and decrepit public services.
Just five years ago, Johnson romped to victory on the back of Brexit, Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, which allowed him to win big in previously left-wing post-industrial heartlands. Brexit is now seen by most Britons as a failure, according to most polls, and its headwinds have been partly responsible for rending deep divisions within the Conservatives and beyond.
Things can change quickly in the U.K., as that shift illustrates, but most polls suggest that if the vote were held tomorrow, the Conservatives could be handed a historic wipeout and Labour a landslide win. Some senior Conservatives have said publicly that they don’t think there’s any point in prolonging the wait, with downtrending polls risking even bigger defeat for the party.
The general election, as it’s known here, will elect the 650 members of the House of Commons. These members of Parliament, or MPs, are the primary lawmakers in the U.K.
Unlike in the United States, however, where the president and Congress are elected separately, Sunak and most of his government ministers are all MPs, too, and thus are elected — or not — with everyone else on the big night.
Sunak, 44, has never been voted in as leader by the general public, but rather was chosen internally by his own party as the successor to Truss, his historically short-lived predecessor. He is the country’s sixth Conservative leader since David Cameron was elected in 2010, and has shifted the party rightward, focusing on immigration and “anti-woke” language, to the chagrin of his more centrist colleagues.
As Labour leader, former prosecutor Keir Starmer, 61, would become prime minister if Sunak is unable to produce what would be a dramatic turnaround.
He took over the party after it suffered a crushing defeat under leftist Jeremy Corbyn in 2019. Starmer has polled far better, but is also accused by those on the left of selling out Labour’s principles, and moving rightward, to do so.
Other parties include the Scottish National Party, which currently dominates politics in Scotland but has recently been rocked by internecine strife. And the anti-immigration Reform UK party — founded by former President Donald Trump ally Nigel Farage — is pressuring the Conservatives from the right.
Meanwhile, the centrist Liberal Democrats and environmentalist Greens will hope to improve their own more modest vote shares, possibly by capitalizing on the backlash against Labour over its stance on the Israel-Hamas war.
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