05/07/2024May 7, 2024
Making cease-fire ‘permanent’ the likely sticking point: analyst
Daniel Gerlach, editor-in-chief of the German Zenith quarterly magazine focusing on the Middle East, told DW on Tuesday that he believed the most likely sticking point in negotiations would be efforts to “disguise” or otherwise portray what would, in essence, be a “permanent” cease-fire in Gaza in such a way that Israel’s government would accept it.
He said he found it difficult to believe Monday’s mixed messages were the result of a diplomatic blunder and that, instead, he suspected a strategy.
“It’s quite difficult to imagine that the CIA Director Bill Burns — who has spent some time now in the Middle East, in Qatar , and who is responsible for negotiating this deal — made a mistake or unclear communication with the Israelis,” he said.
“So I think everyone knows what it comes down to,” Gerlach continued. “It’s the question if Israel is able and willing to accept — in exchange for the hostages — a permanent ceasefire, whatever they may call it. And I think that’s the target of the negotiators.”
Gerlach argued this would be difficult for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept because “then he would not reach his goal to eliminate Hamas and he would not satisfy his coalition partners.”
“And he would probably have to step down as Prime Minister of Israel.”
Meanwhile, he said that for Hamas, the idea of releasing the hostages without an assurance of a permanent cease-fire was not acceptable.
“Of course, the Hamas leadership knows that for them, the hostages are the only way they can still they can protect literally their lives, and that’s the only leverage they have. So they would, of course, not agree to that,” he said.
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