Hamas on Monday announced that it has agreed to a Gaza ceasefire deal— but it isn’t clear if Israel, which appears to be preparing to invade the southern city of Rafah in defiance of international warnings, will accept the terms. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement that Israel’s War Cabinet will continue operations in Rafah to apply military pressure on Hamas: “Although the Hamas proposal is far from Israel’s necessary requirements, Israel will send a delegation of working-class mediators to exhaust the possibility of reaching an agreement under conditions acceptable to Israel.”
The exact terms of the Hamas ceasefire proposal were not immediately evident Monday but are reportedly based on a proposal drawn up by mediators in Egypt and Qatar, which grew out of discussions led by CIA Director William Burns. The United States had pressed the militant group to accept a previous proposal by Israel, suggesting it could avert an anticipated operation in Rafah. However, Netanyahu expressed skepticism of the proposal, saying last week that he would invade Rafah “with or without a deal”—threatening to undermine the fragile truce talks. Israeli media reported that Netanyahu’s government seems unlikely to accept the deal, considering it “one-sided.”
But the prospect of an agreement that would free Hamas-held hostages could put pressure on Netanyahu, with families of hostages taking to the streets in Tel Aviv to call on the government to accept the plan. “Now it’s time for the Israeli government to prove, with action, its commitment to its citizens,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement, welcoming the agreement. “The cabinet must take Hamas’ acceptance and turn it into a deal” to bring home hostages who have been captive since the October 7 terror attack.
Truce talks had appeared to break down in recent days after last week’s brief glimmer of hope that a pause in hostilities—and possibly even the end of the seven-plus month war in Gaza—may have been on the horizon. Israel had softened its demands at the negotiating table, and Hamas described the talks as “positive.” But by Monday, Israel was warning civilians in Rafah to evacuate—a sign that the invasion was imminent. The US and other allies of Israel have repeatedly urged against the operation in the southern Gaza city, with President Joe Biden saying that such a move would cross a “red line.” But Netanyahu—whose cabinet shut down Qatar-based Al Jazeera’s news operation in Israel and raided its offices Sunday—has rejected the international pressure. “If Israel is forced to stand alone,” Netanyahu said in a speech Sunday, “Israel will stand alone.”
But the situation in Gaza is dire; more than 34,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war, and Cindy McCain, executive director of the World Food Program, said Sunday that northern Gaza was in the throes of “full-blown famine.” The anticipated Rafah siege—which Netanyahu has cast as necessary to “fight human evil”—would “lead to an additional layer of an already unbearable tragedy for the people” of Gaza, as Phillipe Lazzarini, commissioner-general for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees put it Monday.
Biden—who is facing intense political pressure at home over his “ironclad” support for Israel—has been increasingly critical of the way Netanyahu has executed the war but has not substantively changed his policy toward the ally. A Rafah incursion would test that, particularly after Hamas’ acceptance of a ceasefire proposal. The Biden administration—which put a hold last week on a weapons shipment to Israel for the first time since the Hamas attack that kicked off the conflict—has told Israel that US policy would change if it followed through with its Rafah expansion. Biden, who spoke with Netanyahu earlier Monday, is “sincere,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said last week, about potential US policy changes “should they move ahead with some sort of ground operation in Rafah that doesn’t take into account the refugees.”
It’s unclear what kind of changes the administration would enact or how much such a shift would impact the situation in the region. It’s also unclear where the ceasefire talks will go from here. However, the US has expressed support for negotiations. “We are,” Kirby said in a briefing Monday, “at a critical stage right now.”
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