Capital Weather Gang is in rare agreement with Punxsutawney Phil: Spring is not just around the corner.
Our February outlook calls for another cold-leaning month, marked by multiple punishing blasts of Arctic air. One arrives later this week. A brief thaw is possible next week, but signals favor renewed cold during the second half of February.
February is already picking up where January left off. Last month averaged about 4 degrees colder than normal and the overall pattern remains substantially chillier than usual.
We expect temperatures to average 4 to 6 degrees below normal for the month — on track to make this the coldest February since 2015.
The persistent cold raises the odds of snow. February is climatologically our snowiest month, and we’re forecasting 3 to 7 inches, near the seasonal norm of about 5 inches. Overall precipitation, including rain, should be near to slightly above normal — owing to the possibility of a stormy second half of the month.
With little sustained warmth, lingering “snowcrete” may take weeks to melt — and could persist into March in some areas.
What models forecast for the month
Temperatures oscillate during the first 10 days of February — generally hovering in the 30s through Friday before plunging into the 20s by the weekend. There are signs our mildest stretch in roughly two and a half weeks will arrive early next week, with highs flirting with 40.
Forecast confidence drops notably after that. Some models depict a milder interlude around Valentine’s Day, with highs potentially climbing above seasonal norms, which are in the mid- to upper 40s.
However, on balance, atmospheric patterns favor colder-than-average weather returning during the second half of February. If that signal fails to materialize, the month would be likely to finish closer to normal than we’re projecting.
Precipitation looks limited through roughly the first 10 days of the month, aside from a chance of light snow midweek. Beyond that, models increasingly tilt toward a wetter — and possibly whiter — second half of February.
What’s typical in February and what’s more unusual
February is often a month of contrasts, capable of delivering harsh winter weather while also serving as a bridge toward spring. Average highs climb from the mid-40s at the start of the month to the low 50s by its end.
Many of the region’s most memorable snowstorms have occurred during February’s first three weeks, when Arctic air collides with surges of milder air from the south and east. Ten of D.C.’s 15 biggest snowstorms on record have struck in the first 19 days of February, including the blockbuster “Snowmageddon” event in 2010.
By the final third of the month, thaws become more common. Highs in the 70s, while rare, are not unprecedented, and recent years have even featured severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the region during late February.
Recapping January
January will be remembered for its brutal finish and for the storm on the 25th that dumped 6 to 9 inches of snow and ice that later consolidated into the dense concrete-like layers locals dubbed “snowcrete.”
From Jan. 24 through Jan. 31, daily highs did not exceed 31 degrees, while overnight lows ranged from 10 to 18 degrees. Temperatures were notably colder away from downtown Washington, frequently dropping into the single digits — and occasionally below zero.
The intense late-month cold dragged January’s average temperature to 4.2 degrees below normal, making it D.C.’s coldest January since 2014.
Snowfall totaled about 7 inches — roughly 2 inches above normal — while total precipitation measured 3.16 inches, about 0.3 inches above average when accounting for rain and the water content of snow and ice. That surplus meant January was the first wetter than normal month since June.
In our January outlook, we projected temperatures would average 1 to 3 degrees below normal with 3 to 6 inches of snow. Both the cold and snowfall ended up somewhat more intense than anticipated.
Matt Rogers and Ian Livingston contributed to this report.
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