It’s Feb. 2. You get in an elevator with someone you don’t know very well. Time to come up with something to say.
“Hey, it’s Groundhog Day.” “Yep.” “Phil saw his shadow.” “No kidding?” “Six more weeks of winter.” “Darn. Hey, see ya later.”
Sparkling conversations like this happen every year. But in 2026, they have been laced with an extra edge of concern, or even desperation.
After a brutal stretch of winter weather in many parts of the United States, especially the East Coast, there was an eagerness on Monday to grab on to any sign of hope for warmth. Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog in Western Pennsylvania who traditionally “predicts” the weather, did not oblige.
It was announced that, upon emerging from the ground, Phil saw his shadow, meaning that six more weeks of winter are upon us. Had a myopic or distracted Phil failed to spot his shadow, spring weather would soon be forthcoming. Or so it is said.
(If Phil’s prediction for 2026 seems familiar, it should. In this century, he has predicted cold weather 20 times, versus seven early springs.)
Wait, a rodent predicts the weather? How does this work?
You must not be from around here.
Every Feb. 2, there is a big shindig in Punxsutawney, Pa. (population roughly 5,000). People from far and wide arrive in town for an early morning ceremony in which Phil emerges from the ground and officials in top hats judge whether he has seen his shadow, therefore dooming the nation to three more fortnights of wintry weather.
Groundhogs in other areas have been set up as rival forecasters, but Punxsutawney Phil has, well, hogged most of the attention.
This year, Wiarton Willie, Ontario’s version of Phil, did not see his shadow, raising the possibility of Americans bracing themselves against howling winds in early March while Canadians lounge in the park in beachwear.
Staten Island has Chuck, who, like Phil, called for more winter to come.
How long has this been going on?
Groundhog punditry is a Pennsylvania Dutch tradition, although in the old country there are records of bears or badgers doing the honors instead.
There are references to American groundhog celebrations dating to the mid-19th century, and the holiday became more regularly celebrated in the latter part of that century. Phil’s predictive role in Punxsutawney dates to 1887, organizers say.
And there’s a movie.
Yes, “Groundhog Day” from 1993 has become a classic. In the film, a television weatherman (Bill Murray) is depressed that he is forced to cover this silly, pointless event. He then becomes inexplicably caught in a time loop, reporting on Groundhog Day again and again.
The film helped solidify interest in the holiday in general, and Phil in particular.
It being Hollywood, there is a happy ending, for that journalist at least.
So does Phil actually have some predictive power?
No.
Here’s a more precise assessment of the coming weather based on the amassed knowledge of trained meteorologists steeped in the scientific method:
Frigid weather is expected to continue at least through the weekend in many areas of the United States, notably the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Forecasts had the temperature about 10 to 15 degrees lower than normal.
Not quite as colorful as a prognosticating Marmota monax, but definitely more meteorologically sound.
Victor Mather, who has been a reporter and editor at The Times for 25 years, covers sports and breaking news.
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