Ryan J. Rusak is a longtime Texas political journalist based in Fort Worth.
FORT WORTH — Few people in Texas politics recognize the world they woke up in Wednesday.
Democrat James Talarico’s victory over Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, a first in Texas politics since 1988, captivated the nation. But more stunning — and perhaps ultimately more consequential — was the extent of Democrats’ rout up and down the state ballot.
In Gina Hinojosa, Texas elected its first Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1990 and the first Hispanic chief executive. Democrat Vikki Goodwin will join her as the first woman to be lieutenant governor. Both defeated incumbents who each won three previous terms without breaking much of a sweat. A year ago, both were little-known state House members from the Austin area.
The entire focus and tenor of Texas governance just changed. How the two parties react going forward will determine how long that lasts. And in that sense, Texas is again a microcosm of the nation. What plays out here will signal whether ascendant Democrats can build a lasting coalition or whether Republicans can regroup with an agenda that appeals beyond their MAGA base.
Talarico and Hinojosa won on the crest of a historic Democratic tide nationwide fueled by a repudiation of President Donald Trump. But they smartly positioned themselves to seize the moment, focusing on Texans’ bread-and-butter concerns and minimizing the impact of unpopular stances on culture-war issues. They talked about inflation, corruption, education and health care.
More importantly, they suggested they would govern from the middle. The scope of Democratic victories in Texas and nationwide will tempt the party to reach for far-left solutions. If Talarico and Hinojosa can lead in a center-left direction, they can help Democrats build lasting majorities in Austin and Washington.
If they get swept up in divisive fights on abortion, unpopular gender policies (particularly involving children) or grandiose government spending plans, though, they’ll help position Republicans for a rapid comeback.
For Texas Republicans, the loss could be clarifying. They campaigned largely by trying to scare voters on cultural issues such as child gender policies and nonexistent efforts to impose a statewide income tax or create cloistered communities subject to Islamic law.
They assumed that their base was larger and more devoted than it was, and they didn’t pay enough attention to independents’ cries of economic pain. For years, Texas Republicans have had little to say about rising health care and home-insurance costs or homeownership being beyond the reach of working families. By the time they tried to pivot, it was far too late.
Republicans won control of Texas after a century of Democratic dominance by appealing to voters’ desire for center-right governance that was friendly to business, promoted job creation and economic growth, and invested in better roads and schools — in other words, the everyday concerns of people who aren’t political junkies.
Can they return to that winning playbook? Or will they shrug it off as a bad year? Mark Davis, the Dallas-area dean of Texas conservative talk radio and a strong supporter of Paxton and Trump, said Republicans couldn’t outrun the fundamental issues of inflation and Iran.
“Trump and Republicans have delivered many wonderful things, from better borders to lower crime to lower taxes to gender sanity and environmental sanity,” Davis said. “But they also delivered brutal gas prices and a war that looks like a quagmire. There was simply no getting past that.”
Put another way, Republicans have to decide if they can reboot “Make America Great Again” for a future in which Trump is off the scene.
“If there’s anything that a Talarico win will do, it will have us looking for fighters in the mold of Trump, in the mold of Paxton, but with maybe fewer negatives, less downside, more ability to attract independents,” Davis said. “The Trump presidency will [end], but the MAGA era will not.”
Davis predicted “a lot of finger-pointing” among Republicans over the drubbing, including whether Paxton’s baggage or the reluctance of more traditional Republicans to back him after a divisive primary was a bigger drag. “It’s going to be pretty ugly, but that will pass,” he said.
Those arguments will happen nationwide, too. With eyes quickly turning to the 2028 presidential race, there will be an urgency to the debate. Because if there’s one thing Republicans and Democrats agree on, a Texas where 40 electoral votes are truly up for grabs changes the complexion of the entire contest.
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