Most energy stocks plunged on Wednesday—except for clean power and utilities in a few remaining reliably red states—as crude oil prices fell to one-month lows because of bullishness on Iran war peace talks and bearishness on the data center boom after Democratic blue wave wins in the midterm elections.
Even as Wall Street celebrated the anticipated gridlock from a splintered Congress and White House—the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3% Wednesday—most energy companies moved in the opposite direction, especially in states such as Texas that had the most shocking Democratic wins.
The other potential loser is the bipartisan legislation to expedite the construction of energy projects—and power the AI boom—that would benefit both renewable power and oil and gas pipelines. Anti-fossil fuel Democrats are now potentially motivated to take harder negotiating tactics. TD Cowen analysts slashed their projection for passing the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA) from 40% to 25% during the lame-duck session before the new Congress is sworn in.
Charles Hua, executive director of the PowerLines nonprofit, said the “seismic” blue wave from Congress to governors’ elections to public service commissions was a referendum on spiking utility bills, gasoline costs, and the inflationary ripple effects throughout the economy.
“You only get such seismicity in political results if something is fundamentally unsteady or unstable, and I think one of the big manifestations of that really has been energy costs,” Hua told Fortune.
In addition to voter discontent over the Iran war and fuel prices, there were more than 40 local ballot measure on restricting or regulating data centers. All but one of them—in North Dakota—passed. “That’s a staggering statistic,” Hua said.
As for Wall Street performance, there were clear winners and losers by utilities and independent power producers.
NRG Energy and Vistra, which are building out gas-fired power generation in Texas to help fuel the AI boom, saw their stock values drop precipitously by 12% and 15%, respectively. Gas turbine manufacturer GE Vernova dipped by 10%.
Analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Jefferies specifically highlighted the “Texas shock,” noting that “the most impactful surprise is the magnitude by which Texas voted Democratic, imperiling the outlook for data center developments.”
Texas-based Tesla and SpaceX leader Elon Musk—after unsuccessfully spending hundreds of millions on GOP candidates—posted on X, “Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now.”
On the other hand, utilities that operate in Florida, which remained Republican, were rewarded. Florida-based NextEra Energy jumped 5% and Duke Energy rose by 3%.
With more clean energy-loving Democrats coming into power, renewable energy companies also were rewarded. First Solar rose by over 4% and solar parts manufacturer Nextpower spiked by 13%.
After President Donald Trump downplayed the potential for an escalation in Iran and Vice President JD Vance blamed his party’s election losses on the war, the global oil benchmark fell by 8% to below $100 per barrel for the first time in nearly a month. As such, oil producers and refiners suffered on Wall Street too.
ExxonMobil and Chevron dipped by 4% and 5%, respectively. Refiners Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy, which have reported record profits of late, plunged by 9% and 7%, respectively.
“We had a referendum on inflation, high oil prices, and Trump in general,” said oil forecaster Dan Pickering, founder of the Pickering Energy Partners consulting and research firm. “It feels like Trump will have more pushback and less maneuverability around how he wants to conduct the conflict in Iran.”
What’s next?
There may be optimism for peace talks in Iran, but this war likely is far from over, Pickering warned.
There is no clear compromise yet, and Trump could easily get frustrated and opt for escalation between now and January, which is what Trump himself predicted before the election.
“I think the Iran conflict gets more complicated for the U.S. We’ve been looking for an off ramp, but we want an off ramp that doesn’t leave the Middle East in chaos,” Pickering told Fortune. “I think that issue probably transcends the election. Even with more Democrats, I don’t think they’re going to want a bad outcome for the Iran crisis. Oil is down, but it’s not cratering.”
Domestically, much of the focus will remain on the data center backlash and permitting reform. Some of the biggest states for data center growth are Texas, Georgia, and Ohio and Democratic challengers all won the governor elections in those states while pushing for data center moratoriums.
“‘Moratorium’ certainly is the buzzword,” Hua said, but it’s not clear if those efforts equate to temporary pauses or outright opposition. “How high on the priory list is electricity? I suspect that electricity vis-a-vis data centers will remain a top-of-mind issue for these new administrations.”
The AI boom has brought both parties somewhat closer together in terms of supporting all-of-the-above energy solutions. That’s why a bipartisan permitting reform effort focused on expediting energy construction of all kinds was coming together. But a Democratic wave is expected to leave more of them arguing in favor of waiting until next year to propose a version that’s less friendly to fossil fuel projects. Such an effort could be risky because it would still require Trump’s signature.
“With greater leverage heading into 2027, Democrats have less incentive to accept pipeline provisions during the lame duck, pushing the debate toward a narrower clean energy-transmission package or no deal,” Dumoulin-Smith added.
The legislation would facilitate the growth of long-distance transmission lines, which most benefit renewable energy. As such, top transmission developer Quanta Services saw its stock fall by 12% Wednesday.
The legislation’s Democratic sponsor, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., implored his party to still support the bill on Wednesday.
“Democrats ran and won on affordability, and this bill lowers costs for families and will allow us to start delivering on our election promises,” Whitehouse told Fortune in a statement. “It’s a bird in the hand. We’d be fools not to take it.”
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