President Trump’s tour of Republican strongholds this fall takes him on Monday to an unexpected battleground: Mississippi. There, he will campaign for Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, a Republican defending her seat in a race that has tightened over the last few months amid a barrage of late spending and visits from prominent Democrats.
Ms. Hyde-Smith, who has held the seat since 2018, is still favored to win. But her challenger, Scott Colom, a Democratic district attorney focused on improving health care access, lowering inflation and fighting corruption, has narrowed her lead, polls show. He is backed by a coalition of working-class Black and white voters.
Here’s what to know about the Senate race.
The race is tighter than anticipated.
A Democrat has not won a Senate seat in Mississippi since 1982, and Mr. Trump won the state by about 23 points in 2024. The race still tilts toward Republicans, but the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, shifted its rating last week to “likely Republican” from “solid Republican.”
Democrats face a steep challenge to regain control of the Senate — they must flip four Republican-held seats, including some in states Mr. Trump won by double digits — but have put Republicans on defense even in deep-red areas of the country.
Super PACs connected to both parties have invested in the Senate contest, and former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned for Mr. Colom in Mississippi last week.
Mr. Colom also recently went viral for a 30-second campaign ad mocking Ms. Hyde-Smith’s tone-deaf response to a local television anchor’s comment on the rising price of beef: “You have so many proteins to choose from,” she says in a clip.
The video cuts to a man grilling. “Pick another protein?” he says. “I’d rather pick another senator instead.”
The senator faces a strong challenger.
Mr. Colom, a district attorney, has used charisma and charm on the trail to turn a difficult seat for Democrats into a potential target. High-profile Democrats like Ms. Harris and Senators Cory Booker of New Jersey and Raphael Warnock of Georgia have campaigned with him, and former President Barack Obama filmed an endorsement ad for him.
If he wins, Mr. Colom would be Mississippi’s first Black senator since Reconstruction. Though he has played down that potential milestone, he has appealed to Mississippi’s Black community, a crucial group that counts for about 37 percent of all residents, the largest share of any state.
Mr. Colom cast Mr. Trump’s visit as a sign of concerns that Ms. Hyde-Smith might lose.
“Cindy High Prices is scared and that’s why she’s sending Donald Trump down here,” Mr. Colom wrote on social media last week. “She’s scared to answer why she voted to cut healthcare, why she betrayed our farmers and why she blocked the release of the Epstein files.”
Republicans are still projecting confidence.
Mr. Trump, asked last week how worried he was about Ms. Hyde-Smith’s chances, told reporters that she was “very popular” and that he had won the state “in a landslide.” He said: “If I need to get her over the top, I would go there.”
On Friday, he told reporters that he was traveling to Mississippi because he had been asked to go. “She’s up in the polls,” he said. “She’s not losing.”
Jake Monssen, Ms. Hyde-Smith’s campaign manager, said on Monday that “Mississippians aren’t too keen” on Mr. Colom because of his liberal policies. “I think we’re in a good spot,” he added.
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