JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could finish second in Tuesday’s national election behind retired military chief Gadi Eisenkot but still return to lead a unity government alongside the man who vowed to replace him.
That’s a polarizing prospect that Israelis and the Trump administration are contemplating, with polls projecting neither Netanyahu- nor Eisenkot-led blocs will secure the 61 parliamentary seats needed to form a majority government.
For Eisenkot and many of his supporters, the idea of handing Netanyahu a lifeline to remain in power, even as a rotating prime minister alongside Eisenkot, is difficult to stomach.
In the run-up to the vote, Eisenkot and his bloc have lambasted Netanyahu for his failure to prevent the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack and to end the subsequent wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
They have also roundly condemned his alliances with far-right politicians who have stoked West Bank violence and with ultra-Orthodox parties that oppose military service for devout believers.
But Netanyahu’s camp is pushing the idea vigorously and has a sympathetic ear in President Donald Trump, according to three people familiar with the matter who, like many quoted in this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive political deliberations.
Trump stunned Israel and Washington on Oct. 18 by urging Israelis to vote for Netanyahu, describing him on social media as a “great warrior prime minister” and a “Partner for Peace in combating the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Trump repeated his endorsement Sunday.
Trump also has publicly pressured Israeli President Isaac Herzog repeatedly to pardon Netanyahu, who faces corruption charges.
Trump’s statements amount to an unprecedented intervention by a U.S. president in Israel, where most polls show the electorate preferring Eisenkot over Netanyahu as the next prime minister.
Netanyahu privately has promised U.S. and European officials that if he joins forces with Eisenkot in the next government, he could abandon his far-right governing partners, such as Itamar Ben Gvir of the Jewish Power party, and help lead a more moderate coalition.
In conversations with U.S. officials, Netanyahu also has argued that he is the best Israeli partner to help resume the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, these people said.
Even as Eisenkot led Netanyahu in the polls in recent weeks, Trump surrogates privately discussed with Israelis the possibility of a unity government, one of the three people added.
“Eisenkot has shown he lacks the backbone and the determination that Netanyahu has, and I think Trump understands that,” said a second person, an official from Netanyahu’s Likud party. “What Trump wants is a stable and reliable Israeli government that can be formed as soon as possible after the election.”
Still, the Trump administration remains divided on the idea of a unity government, those familiar with the matter said.
Some U.S. officials agree with Netanyahu’s pitch that he would be more moderate without the influence of Ben Gvir, but others are deeply distrustful of him, citing his track record of betraying allies to stay in power, a U.S. official said.
If Eisenkot balks at a partnership, Netanyahu also could aim to take advantage of the political gridlock, staying on as a caretaker prime minister and ultimately seeking to force another vote.
In an interview, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said that Trump decided to endorse Netanyahu “apparently solely on his own” and that Netanyahu was not aware of Trump’s decision until the president posted about it Oct. 18.
Huckabee declined to discuss Trump’s motivations for the endorsement or the U.S. position on a unity government, adding that federal employees, including diplomats, are prohibited from political activities in Israel under the Hatch Act.
“My job is to work with whatever government is elected, and that’s what I will do,” Huckabee said. “I’ve had a wonderful working relationship with the current government. If it continues, I’m certain that will also continue. But if the people of Israel elect a different government, it will be my job to represent the United States to them with equally strong a commitment to be a partner to that government.”
As speculation mounted in recent weeks, Eisenkot has played down the idea of a unity government.
“Absolutely not. I will not serve under Netanyahu, not even in a rotation agreement,” he told Israel’s 103FM radio last week. “If that happens, you’ll see it. I’ll resign an hour later.”
This week, however, he was more measured. Asked about Trump pushing for a unity government, Eisenkot said that “only the Israeli public will determine the outcome of the elections.”
Many political observers in Israel dismiss the likelihood of Eisenkot and Netanyahu joining forces because of a lack of trust between the two men and Eisenkot’s deep commitment to ousting Netanyahu, who has led Israel for nearly 19 of the past 30 years.
In 2020, Benny Gantz, another retired general, ran on an anti-Netanyahu campaign but formed a unity government with Likud that installed Netanyahu as the first prime minister in a rotation deal. The coalition fell before Gantz took over amid widespread accusations that Netanyahu engineered the collapse to keep Gantz from the top job.
In recent weeks, even Netanyahu’s own current coalition partners have raised alarm about his maneuvering.
Last week, Ben Gvir, the national security minister, issued a statement accusing Netanyahu of telling European diplomats that he planned to oust Ben Gvir after the vote, and “bring in Eisenkot instead, and hand these portfolios over to the Left.”
“Netanyahu needs to stand with me on the right and pursue a full, full right-wing government,” Ben Gvir told the Jerusalem Post. “Only that way will we be able to save the State of Israel.”
After Tuesday’s vote, Eisenkot may face a similar decision on whether to trust Netanyahu and join hands with Likud.
Polls predict that Eisenkot would have enough seats to form a government with the backing of the so-called Arab parties that largely represent Palestinian-Israelis who form one-fifth of the population.
But some of Eisenkot’s partners, such as the Jewish hard-liner Avigdor Liberman, have ruled out partnering with the Arab parties.
Eisenkot would approach any partnership discussions with Netanyahu with extreme caution, said Menachem Lazar, a prominent Israeli pollster who also heads polling for the Israeli newspaper Maariv.
“There is no trust inside the political arena in Netanyahu — and that’s an understatement,” Lazar said. “It would be political suicide for Gadi, because the opposition camp is so, so much against Netanyahu. But then again, politicians do things that we don’t expect.”
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