Gov. Kathy Hochul is running well ahead of her Republican opponent in next month’s election, according to a new statewide survey released on Wednesday, even as likely voters continue to signal their ambivalence toward how she has run the state.
With 55 percent support, Ms. Hochul leads her Republican opponent, the Nassau County executive, Bruce Blakeman, by 14 percentage points among likely voters, according to the poll conducted by Quinnipiac University.
The results generally fell in line with several nonpartisan statewide surveys, which found Ms. Hochul leading Mr. Blakeman by between 9 and 13 percentage points. Quinnipiac’s most recent poll in September found the governor with a 19-point lead. This survey, which was conducted from Oct. 15 to Oct. 19, polled 1,167 likely voters across the state and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Despite her sizable and stable lead, just 49 percent of likely voters approved of the job Ms. Hochul has done as governor, while 45 percent expressed disapproval.
In voter-rich New York City, Ms. Hochul leads Mr. Blakeman by nearly 50 percentage points in the Quinnipiac poll. Her campaign advisers have been apprehensive in recent weeks over whether city voters, who have few competitive contests on their ballots, will show up.
Ms. Hochul’s campaign advisers believe that Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who is vastly more popular than the governor in the city, can help as he continues to campaign for her.
Mary Snow, the Quinnipiac poll assistant director, noted that Ms. Hochul was doing better with voters in New York City in this survey compared with a poll taken at about the same time four years ago. In that race against Lee Zeldin, then a Republican congressman who now leads the Environmental Protection Agency, Ms. Hochul ended up winning by six percentage points.
Mr. Blakeman has pilloried the governor in recent months on affordability issues, including rising taxes and utility costs for residents, and her immigration policies, such as her decision to ban formal cooperation between federal immigration authorities and local police officers. Even so, she appears to be winning the economic argument despite his attacks.
Respondents to the Quinnipiac poll indicated that the two most important issues to them are the economy and the cost of living, with immigration coming in a distant third. Those who listed the economy or the cost of living as the most important issue favored Ms. Hochul by about 50 percentage points over Mr. Blakeman. Among likely voters who said immigration was the most important issue to them, Mr. Blakeman leads the governor by about 40 percentage points.
“Compared to a month ago, he is better known and he’s improved his image among independents,” Ms. Snow said of Mr. Blakeman. “Still, nearly a quarter of voters overall don’t know enough about him. In a race like this, that’s important.”
Ms. Hochul finds herself in a commanding position financially as well, with far more money available to her than Mr. Blakeman. Her campaign announced on Wednesday that between the state Democratic Party and her campaign, Ms. Hochul effectively had a combined $22 million in cash on hand as early voting was to begin Saturday.
Much of that money is expected to pay for campaign ads linking Mr. Blakeman to President Trump, who remains exceedingly unpopular across the state. Sixty percent of likely voters disapproved of the job he was doing as president. About the same percentage had an unfavorable view of him, according to the poll.
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