WASHINGTON — Winter in the United States looks like it will generally be wetter and warmer, but not necessarily snowier, according to the federal government’s seasonal outlook and other meteorologists’ forecasts. You can thank or blame El Niño.
El Niño is likely to shift weather patterns to bring more moisture, but with it higher temperatures. That should help erase persistent Western drought, but it won’t likely make Northern snow-lovers happy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
El Niño, the natural but temporary warming in parts of the Pacific, generally warms the globe. Although it disrupts weather conditions around the world in dramatically different ways, its effects tend to follow predictable regional patterns, especially when El Niño is strong like it is right now. That gives forecasters greater confidence in what lies ahead.
All this is on top of a U.S. winter that has warmed about 4 degrees in the past 50 years, predominantly from human-caused climate change, according to NOAA.
While the weather service doesn’t make seasonal snowfall predictions, their meteorologists said much of the northern parts of the country — including the Northeast, Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Northern Rockies — should expect below-normal snow. The Southern Rockies, parts of the Southeast and Southwest may get more snow than they usually do.
Salt Lake City is the only big metro area where AccuWeather expects above-normal winter snow amounts. Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia are forecast to get about half or less of their normal winter snow, the firm said.
Part or all of 41 of the Lower 48 states are forecast to be warmer than normal.
No states — or even parts of states — are forecast to be cooler than average. Florida, Louisiana, southern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi are forecast to be near normal. There’s equal chance of warm, cold or normal in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Southern California, Nevada, Wyoming, western Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska.
Borenstein writes for the Associated Press.
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