On the eve of an election that could turn on affordability, the nation is getting less affordable.
That’s the takeaway from today’s inflation report, which deepened Republican gloom as it revealed that rising energy costs, largely driven by the war with Iran, have pushed prices up with a few weeks to go until the midterms.
The report showed that consumer prices last month were 3.7 percent higher than they were a year earlier, contradicting President Trump’s sunny pronouncements about an improving economy.
It handed Democrats an opportunity to tie pain at the pump — and at grocery stores, airports and feedlots — directly to the president’s decision to start a war in the Middle East, and to the elected Republicans who have supported him.
“It puts a number on the sentiment that is driving this election,” Jason Roe, a Republican strategist based in Michigan, told me. “It would be one thing for Republicans to say, ‘Things are getting better.’ But it’s hard to say when you have a data point less than three weeks before the election that shows they’re not.”
The numbers
The price of fuel has rocketed upward, hitting Americans each time they fill the tank and raising prices on goods that need to be moved from one place to another (which is … just about everything).
“People are starting to fire up their furnaces. They’re still filling up their pump. It’s just on the front lines of every family’s budget in a forward-facing way,” said Colin Reed, a Republican strategist. He described rising energy costs as an extra “burden” on Republican candidates who were always going to have a tough midterm, when the president’s party historically takes a beating.
It’s not just fuel, though. Close to half of Americans are having trouble paying for basic needs, according to a study by the Pew Research Center. And the combination of higher inflation and weaker wage growth means Americans are actually earning less for an hour of work.
As my colleague Ben Casselman pointed out today, Americans’ real wages, on average, have been stuck in place since Trump returned to the White House.
The blame game
Democrats seized on the new figures.
They understand how inflation can swing an election. They lost control of the House of Representatives in 2022, several months after inflation hit 9 percent in the wake of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Through ads and social media posts, they tried to pin the latest report of rising costs directly on Trump and Republicans.
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In Ohio, an ad from Sherrod Brown, the Democratic Senate candidate, began airing today that accuses the Republican incumbent, Jon Husted, of raising prices by voting to support the war in Iran. “No matter how you pay, Jon Husted’s votes in Washington end up costing us more,” the ad says.
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In Kansas, where the heavily agricultural economy has been hit hard by the spiking cost of diesel and the Trump administration’s tariffs, the Democratic Senate candidate, Adam Hamilton, blamed Senator Roger Marshall “for the rising cost of fuel and inflation that’s costing Kansans hundreds more a month on everything from groceries and housing to health care.”
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And Pete Buttigieg wrote on social media that inflation has risen “not because of a pandemic. Not because of a natural disaster. Because of Trump’s war, tariffs, and corporate tax breaks.”
A matter of trust
The Trump administration has looked for ways to give voters financial relief, including $90 payouts for millions of seniors on Medicare and $500 rebate checks for some Affordable Care Act customers.
Some of its ideas, however, have caused only more blowback. The administration’s plan to import diesel from Russia has drawn bipartisan condemnation, as has its effort to drop import tariffs on beef.
The economy was one of Trump’s major advantages in the 2024 election. Today, though, polling suggests he and his party have lost their edge.
A recent New York Times/Siena University poll of five red states — Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas and Texas — found that 61 percent of voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared with 38 percent who approved of it.
And a Times/Siena poll released in the middle of last month found that 51 percent of voters trusted Democrats more to manage the economy, while 45 percent chose Republicans. Democrats also had an advantage on who voters trusted more to handle the cost of living.
Mike DuHaime, a Republican strategist based in New Jersey, said Republicans in tough races would be smart to put distance between themselves and the president when it comes to the economy — but it’s too late to start now.
“There needs to be some level of independence that you’ve probably created over the last two years,” DuHaime said, “not over the last two weeks.”
Voters’ Voices
High prices resonate in Georgia
Our reporters were out at polling stations in Atlanta and Savannah, Ga., today, talking to voters casting early ballots. Here’s what they said.
Thandie Hazelton, a project manager, said she voted for Democrats for governor and Senate because she believes they’re the best picks to confront rising costs.
“Affordability is obviously key, especially here in Georgia,” she said. “There are differences in the gas pumps, as well as in the community, as far as just affording the day-to-day necessities.”
Joy Waters (pictured on the left) voted Republican down the ticket. She counts herself as a supporter of Trump’s, though not without some reservations — including the high cost of living.
She said she wished the U.S. and Iran would end their war. “Our groceries and our gas prices would finally go down,” she said.
Alexis King, a former journalist, voted for a straight Democratic ticket. She said the cost of living weighs on her.
“I can’t afford gas, and food, and medicine, and rent, so it’s always a struggle,” she said. “I always owe somebody something, so I can pay the other guy, and I’m not the only one in that position. Housing is unaffordable. Groceries are unaffordable.”
Get Caught Up
In Washington
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The Pentagon is sending several hundred Army soldiers to Latin America to train with local forces, according to military officials, as the U.S. expands its campaign against drug trafficking.
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The Supreme Court sided with the Trump administration in a monthslong fight over which groups are entitled to lower ad rates. The order is likely to give the G.O.P. a modest boost.
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The liner installed in the Reflecting Pool in Washington this summer failed in 85 places, The Washington Post reports.
On the campaign trail
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Former Vice President Kamala Harris is going on a tour to boost Democratic candidates. She plans to visit Mississippi, New Hampshire and Wisconsin in the coming weeks.
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Trump traveled to Arizona this afternoon for a rally, and will hold another tonight in Montana.
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Former President Bill Clinton will campaign in Florida next week for David Jolly, the Democrat running for governor. The Jolly campaign said it was Clinton’s first public campaign appearance of the midterms.
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Senator Bernie Sanders will campaign in support of Democrats across Texas next week — though James Talarico, the Democratic Senate nominee, will not be joining him.
In One Chart
The 2026 midterms ad bill officially topped $10 billion today, Teddy Schleifer reports.
“The fact that this campaign is projected to be pricier than even the 2024 presidential election cycle,” Teddy writes, “speaks to just how intense the battle for political control is in the second Trump administration.”
Debate Takeaways
Candidates in battleground Senate races in Maine, Georgia and Iowa faced off last night. Here are three moments that stood out.
In Maine …
Troy Jackson, the Democratic challenger, said Senator Susan Collins was to blame for the war in Iran. Collins — who initially supported the war but has voted against it since April — said she was aligned with Democrats on the issue.
“Troy and I agree that the war should come to an end,” she said, adding, “I agree that the president did not have a good plan. He should have anticipated the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”
In Iowa …
Both candidates tiptoed across party lines. Ashley Hinson, the Republican, criticized Trump’s deal to buy diesel from Russia, while Josh Turek, the Democrat, emphasized his support for border security and automobile tariffs.
In Georgia …
Senator Jon Ossoff, the Democratic incumbent, has for months fielded questions about whether he might run for president in 2028. Last night, he tried to put that to rest.
When asked whether he would commit to serving a full, six-year Senate term, Ossoff replied, “Yes, I will.” He added: “I have zero interest in running for president. I’m not running for president.”
Read our takeaways from Georgia and Maine, and a fact-check covering all three.
ONE LAST THING
Clemency, live and onstage
Trump’s reality TV showmanship often manifests at his campaign rallies. Last month, it came in the form of a surprise announcement that he would send every American adult a $5,000 check — or rather, a “Trump dividend” — if Republicans retained control of Congress.
And last night, at a rally in Wasilla, Alaska, he tried something new: He called two men up to the stage and publicly pardoned them for violations of the Clean Air Act.
“This means the world to me,” one of the men told the crowd. The other stepped up to the microphone and made a pitch for two Republican incumbents on the ballot, Senator Dan Sullivan and Representative Nick Begich. “Cut to the chase here and let’s re-elect Dan Sullivan,” he said. “Let’s re-elect Nick. Let’s get it done.”
Sean Keenan, Caitlin Philippo and Taylor Robinson contributed to this newsletter.
The post Prices Rise as Election Nears, Worrying Republicans appeared first on New York Times.
