Cook Political Report shifted its rating for three governor’s races in red states toward the Democrats on Tuesday, the latest example of Republican strongholds becoming unexpectedly competitive in the midterm elections.
The nonpartisan election prognosticator changed its rating for the Alaska race from a toss-up to lean Democratic. In the Nebraska and Oklahoma gubernatorial contests, Cook shifted its ratings from solid Republican to likely Republican.
In Alaska, former Anchorage mayor Dave Bronson, former state attorney general Treg Taylor and businesswoman Bernadette Wilson are all running as Republicans against former Democratic state representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.
Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen (R), who has low approval ratings in his state, faces former state senator Lynne Walz (D).
Oklahoma Republican nominee Mike Mazzei survived a bitter primary and late runoff, in part thanks to President Donald Trump’s endorsement. But he was left bruised, giving Democratic State House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson an opening.
Trump rallied in Oklahoma on Oct. 1 — a tacit acknowledgment of Mazzei’s weakness among the GOP base.
In 2024, Trump won Oklahoma by 34 percentage points and Nebraska by 20 points.
Cook also shifted its rating for the governor’s race in Vermont, a blue state where Gov. Phil Scott (R) has gone from one of the most popular governors to seeing his approval rating fall, from solid Republican to likely Republican.
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