Good morning. AI could automate more than half of U.S. work hours over the next decade. But that doesn’t mean half the workforce will disappear.
That’s a key finding of new research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). The report estimates that technological and economic changes could reduce labor demand by the equivalent of 36 million jobs over the next decade.
At the same time, economic growth, including growth in AI-related industries and services, could create demand for about 41 million jobs. The U.S. could have more jobs in 2035 than today, even as technology changes how people work and the skills they need.
The challenge is that new jobs may require different skills from those workers have today. In fields such as management and law, where judgment, coordination and accountability matter, AI is more likely to help people do their jobs than replace them outright. It may also create new responsibilities that require training, from checking AI-generated work to ensuring its responsible use and redesigning workflows.
Office and administrative support roles face particular exposure to automation, with roughly 80% of current work hours potentially automated by 2035. That doesn’t mean 80% of jobs will disappear, but it signals how significantly these roles could change.
For some workers, adapting will mean moving into entirely different occupations. MGI estimates that about 11 million Americans may need to leave declining occupations for new ones. Others may be able to stay in their fields as their work evolves. Still, roughly 770,000 workers a year may need to change occupations over the next decade—about 3.6 times the historical rate, according to the authors.
Credentials present another hurdle. About 85% of growing employment requires a credential or certification. For 38% of those jobs, the credential is legally required; for another 47%, employers prefer it. The research suggests companies could widen their talent pools by rethinking which qualifications are essential and giving greater weight to proven skills and experience.
MGI recommends tracking whether employees move into new roles, whether companies fill more positions internally and how workers fare, not just AI-related cost savings.
Finance leaders could examine how employees use the time AI frees up. Is it used to improve customer service, develop new ideas, grow the business or tackle more complex work? Or does it simply reduce the time spent on existing tasks?
The key question isn’t just how much work AI can take on. It’s what the business does with the time it saves.
Sheryl Estrada [email protected]
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