The Cook Political Report, the nonpartisan election prognosticator, moved 18 more House seats toward favoring Democrats on Friday.
Two Iowa seats — held by Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn — and two Pennsylvania seats, held by Republican Reps. Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry, moved from being rated as toss-ups to “lean Democratic.” Additionally, Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s race in Washington state went from toss-up to lean Democratic.
Cook also reclassified four “lean Republican” races to toss-ups, including an open seat in Iowa’s 2nd District and Rep. Don Davis’s (D) seat in North Carolina. While Republicans redrew North Carolina’s maps to make Davis’s seat more GOP-friendly, the plan so far appears to have not resulted in a safe GOP seat.
Moreover, Cook re-rated two “solid Republican” seats to “likely Republican,” as well as three “likely Republican” seats to “lean Republican.”
Polling and the work of prognosticators like the Cook Political Report suggest Democrats are likely to take back the House in November. That’s led to the question: If Democrats do have the majority, how large will it be?
Gerrymandering limits the size of any party’s majority, but Cook’s Erin Covey is now projecting that Democrats could flip a net of nine to 19 seats. If that proves to be the case, the party would hold between 224 and 234 seats next Congress.
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