A Democratic wave in November may come as much from Republicans who stay home as from Democrats who win over converts, according to New York Times reporting from western Michigan, a conservative stronghold now showing deep fatigue with President Donald Trump.
Analyst Charlie Cook has labeled the trend the “red undertow,” arguing that the story of this election is less about Democrats gaining momentum than about the Trump brand sinking and dragging Republicans down with it.
In nearly three dozen interviews, the Times found voters tired, distracted and sometimes bewildered. Jim Pasek, an 80-year-old retired plant maintenance worker from Gobles who twice voted for Trump, said the president no longer adds up for him.
“He’s not making sense,” Pasek said.
Pasek faults Trump for launching a war after saying he wouldn’t, which pushed up gas prices, and says Trump seems more interested in ballrooms and arches than in bringing costs down. His friend Jeff Gilbert, 67, has largely tuned out the news but still backs the president and trusts he has an Iran plan.
Others sounded checked out. Lindsay Kronemeyer, a conservative Christian mother who once knocked on doors for Trump and ran for the state House herself, admitted she’d barely followed this year’s local races, and said Trump rarely crosses her mind anymore. Brandon Tremaine, a 24-year-old Texas graduate student who backed Trump in 2020, plans to skip the election because of the war. Sebastian Covey, 24, who first voted in 2024, is stretched by a long commute and high gas prices and hasn’t given voting much thought.
Local party officials see it too. Doug Koopman of the Kent County Republican executive committee said volunteers have been reluctant to take campaign literature to distribute, leaving stacks sitting at headquarters, and described “very low energy” among Republicans. Former state Rep. Al Pscholka said Trump’s combative style has worn people out.
The MAGA wing’s hold on the region has slipped as well. Trump loyalists won most of the Ottawa County commission after Covid, but now hold just three seats, and have lost ground in Berrien and Kent counties. A retired GOP consultant said Rep. Bill Huizenga, who has always won easily, is facing a serious challenge.
The gap in voter enthusiasm is small on paper. A Times/Siena poll last month found 61 percent of Democrats were absolutely certain to vote, compared with 56 percent of Republicans. The Times noted that polls can mislead, that Trump loyalists often avoid pollsters, and that some disillusioned voters may return. In tight races, though, a few points can matter.
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