Josh Rogin is the lead global security analyst at WP Intelligence, where he writes and speaks about the intersection of geopolitics and business.
As the unraveling of the post-Cold War international order led by the United States and Europe accelerates, the unanswered question in Europe is: What comes next? The continent is rearming as Russia’s hybrid war mounts while President Donald Trump courts Moscow and Beijing. The transatlantic alliance has never been more precarious.
But at least one European leader is betting that the alliance will adapt and survive. It helps that Finnish President Alexander Stubb may have the best relationship with Trump of any of his European counterparts — a tie forged, naturally, while playing golf. It also helps that in these uncertain times, Stubb takes the long view, rooted in his four decades of traversing the Atlantic Ocean, first as a student and now as his country’s leader.
“I don’t know when the world is going to settle. Give it another five years or so. By 2030, we’ll probably get some kind of a new order,” Stubb told me in an interview on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September. “But right now, we’re kind of in between, and that’s what makes it quite complicated.”
Complicated is a diplomatic way to describe the Trump administration’s second-term approach to Europe. First, Trump launched a trade war against America’s European allies. He then threatened to take Greenland from Denmark, a NATO member. Senior administration officials, including Vice President JD Vance, have embraced far-right European movements such as the Alternative for Germany party and former Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party. And Washington is demanding Europeans carry more of the burden of defending their continent and helping Ukraine.
Amid all that, Stubb has built working relationships with Trump, Trump’s son-in-law and envoy Jared Kushner, and other top U.S. officials that most European leaders can only envy. Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store have become key nodes in the Trump administration’s Ukraine diplomacy, connecting Americans, Ukrainians and Europeans. “I think we’re in the back office,” Stubb said. “I have a good relationship with Jared.” His prescription is a ceasefire at the current line of contact, followed by peace talks. He advocates for concurrently increasing support to Ukraine.
Stubb cautions against overreacting to Russia’s escalating campaign of hybrid warfare inside Europe. In August, a drone carrying an explosive device was found at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned in September that Moscow plans drone and missile strikes on NATO territory that it will call accidents.
Four drones have fallen in Finland this year, Stubb has said. But he said he did not see a direct Russian military threat to Finland and believes Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign should be managed over the longer term.
“I think people need to be more Finnish about it,” he said. “So be collected, and if you fear that there’s an escalation, first thing you do is you go in the sauna and then you take an ice bath and you reflect on what you do about it.”
Stubb credits his time as a college student in Greenville, South Carolina, for sparking his lifelong effort to strengthen U.S.-Finland ties. He arrived at Furman University in 1989, the year the Berlin Wall fell, and played on Furman’s golf team. The South Carolina connection led Stubb to befriend Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), who died suddenly in July. Stubb flew to Washington for Graham’s funeral. Graham had introduced Stubb to Trump in February 2025 and mentioned Stubb’s golf game. The next month, Stubb and Trump were teammates in the Spring Member-Guest tournament at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida, along with Graham, golf legend Gary Player and former congressman Trey Gowdy. They won. “He is a very good player,” Trump posted about Stubb. After that, they were fast friends.
Stubb cemented the friendship by engaging the Trump team on something Finland produces and America needs: Arctic icebreakers. Russia has 42 of them, by his count. The U.S. Coast Guard has three. At the White House in October 2025, Trump and Stubb signed an agreement for up to 11 new Arctic security cutters, four of them built in Finnish shipyards, for an estimated $6.1 billion. The first ship is due in 2028.
Trump took a personal interest in the icebreaker project, Stubb said, calling him at odd hours to discuss it. At their meeting last month in New York, Trump talked about golf and icebreakers, Stubb said.
Along with Stubb, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski are among those European leaders keeping the transatlantic relationship afloat, said James Crabtree, a distinguished fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“The best-case scenario for Europe is an orderly rebalancing within NATO over time, where the Americans do less, the Europeans do more, but it happens in a kind of phased way that doesn’t leave any gaps,” he said. “That’s what Stubb is going for.”
Still, many Trumpworld figures continue to make common cause with right-leaning movements in Europe pushing a Russia-friendly stance. Next up is France, where Trump and Vance have supported Marine Le Pen, who has been cleared to run in April’s presidential election.
That’s why Finland, and Europe more broadly, is hedging. Stubb touted Europe’s new trade deals with India and South America and deeper cooperation with the Gulf states as examples of Europeans diversifying their geopolitical portfolio. “Because it is a world of disorder, almost a world of chaos — you need to play that game,” he said.
The America that Stubb got to know in Greenville as a college student in the 1990s had just won the Cold War and believed its values and its alliances were the source of its strength.
Will post-Trump America still champion those values and alliances? For the sake of the security of Europe and the United States, let’s hope so.
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