BRASILIA, Brazil — Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, an ally of President Donald Trump, has pulled off a surprisingly strong showing in Brazil’s first round of presidential elections, giving him momentum in the weeks before an Oct. 25 runoff against incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has allied himself with the Trump administration at a moment when Trump allies are taking power in Latin America, while Lula has spoken out against U.S. interference in the Brazilian elections and built a stronger relationship with Beijing.
In a tight race on Sunday, Bolsonaro garnered 47% of the vote to the populist leftist president’s 45%. Since neither candidate secured an absolute majority, they will face off again in three weeks. The winner of Brazil’s first round of voting has never lost an election, though never before has the second-place candidate been so close in the results.
Here’s what to know about the upcoming second round and what it means for Brazil.
Candidates are preparing strategies for a tight race
The 80-year-old Lula will face an uphill battle to win the presidency for the fourth nonconsecutive term, analysts say.
Edinho Silva, the chairman of Lula’s Workers’ Party, told journalists in Sao Paulo that the president will meet with campaign managers in Brasilia seeking to refine his message delivery, evaluate regional turnout figures, and re-allocate resources to key battleground states ahead of the second round.
TV debates, which were snubbed by both candidates in the first round, will also be key, he said.
“Now it is mano a mano. We will show Brazilians that Flávio Bolsonaro is dangerous and will not run this country in a way they will see their lives improve,” Silva said. “We will try to speak to every democratic force in this country.”
On the opposition side, Bolsonaro is engaging in outreach to political figures, party leaders and regional allies to consolidate support. His team is focusing on building on his already impressive congressional backing: His Liberal Party won more than one-third of the Senate on Sunday — which is unusual in Brazil’s fractured political system.
Three of the other 10 presidential candidates from the first round have said they will not endorse either candidate.
Lula faces a spirit of change with Brazil’s right-wing
Lula is fighting a trend of frustration with incumbents and a shift to the right in Brazil and worldwide, according to Creomar de Souza, a political analyst with Dharma Political Risk and Strategy, a political consultancy firm based in Brasilia.
“The spirit of the times is pushing Brazil to another place. Since 2016, Brazil is under that right-wing spirit. It leaned to Flávio this time, but it could have been anybody else on the right,” de Souza said.
“It will be tough for Lula to win. He is rowing from the back when he thought by now they would be winning by a small margin. Can he do it? Yes. Is it likely? It will be very tough.”
Tom Ferreira, 35, a business administrator who has voted for Lula in past elections, is an example of a former Lula voter who swung to Bolsonaro. He cast his ballot for Bolsonaro this time, although he preferred the proposals of some of the other candidates who didn’t get many votes, like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado. He doesn’t think Bolsonaro has strong proposals.
“It’s more of a question of change,” he said. “Today, people vote in a way that’s like, ‘I’m for Bolsonaro,’ or ‘I’m for Lula.’ … Nobody votes because they researched the candidate or saw what they’ve done.”
The shuttered Banco Master corruption scandal that exposed Bolsonaro had accepted millions of dollars from disgraced banker, Daniel Vorcaro, to fund a movie about his father’s life wasn’t a deal-breaker for Ferreira because he believes most politicians are corrupt.
“They bring Bolsonaro into it, but really everyone’s involved,” he said.
Some voters give some hope to Lula, too.
Brenda Alves de Carvalho, a 27-year-old financial assistant, voted for another presidential candidate, Augusto Cury, in the first round but says she will support Lula in the runoff. That doesn’t mean she is excited about it. She said that the president’s third term was not great, but it is “closer to what we want.”
“I didn’t want to vote at first. I know now I’ll have to vote for one side, because I don’t want to cast a blank vote.”
Savarese and Brigida write for the Associated Press. Savarese reported from Sao Paulo.
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