Autumn is officially here—and with it comes leaf-peeping season. Millions of people are expected to travel to view the changing autumn leaves across the United States, bringing billions of dollars in tourism for the towns that can capitalize on their regions’ vivid colors. A 2025 estimate from the U.S. National Park Service showed that fall tourists spend over $8 billion in the New England region annually.
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If you’re looking to pin down the best time and place to catch a brief glimpse of reds and oranges before winter descends, you might find the task trickier than expected. Experts say that predicting peak fall foliage has never been an easy task, and climate change is only complicating the matter.
“There’s a lot of things that create variation in the colors across the landscape, and all these things can interact somewhat unpredictably,” says William Keeton, a professor of forest ecology and forestry at the University of Vermont. “Climate change, as with everything, just scrambles the deck.”
Where are the best fall colors expected in 2026?
Across the vast United States, fall foliage takes many forms, with leaves of different shapes and sizes turning vibrant colors against backdrops ranging from mountain peaks to rolling farmland.
New England and upstate New York were among the most promising areas in AccuWeather’s August forecast, with wet weather in late spring and early summer and the prospect of drier conditions and cooler nights heading into autumn potentially setting the stage for memorable views.
However, AccuWeather forecast less vivid colors in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, citing cloud cover, rain, and a lack of clear, cool nights.
Colorado and the Carolinas could also see duller colors and brittle leaves due to drought conditions in the region.
How will climate change affect the pastime of leaf peeping?
It’s hard to know for certain just how much climate change is impacting the changing of the leaves each fall. That’s because a number of factors—including rain and temperature—can affect when we begin to see fall colors and how vibrant they become.
As days shorten, chlorophyll production in deciduous trees slows and eventually stops, while existing chlorophyll breaks down. Weather conditions also influence the timing and intensity of fall colors. The years 2015 through 2025 have been the warmest on record globally—and the heat impacts trees.
“There is some evidence that warming temperatures, especially warmer nighttime temperatures that extend later into the fall, can delay the onset of fall foliage,” says Keeton.
Extreme weather events—including droughts and heavy rainfall—can play a part in the vividness of the colors, while a cold snap can trigger leaves to fall early.
“Extreme climate events like severe drought, can reduce the production of the chemical compounds that produce fall color,” says Keeton. “Drought can also stress trees, leading to them dropping their leaves sooner than they otherwise might.”
Warmer fall temperatures typically lead to a shorter peak fall foliage season. However, some research is finding that climate change could lead to a longer season in some instances, as different species of trees respond at different times.
“We still have the early changers, but some of the other ones are a bit delayed. Instead of having lots of different species all flipping the switch around the same time, we’re going to have this extended period,” says Chris Martine, a professor of biology at Bucknell University and president of the Botanical Society of America.
“What would have been a mosaic of lots of different colors, within the same period, is going to be now this extended thing where we see a few species change here and there, and then maybe a couple weeks later, another set of species,” he says.
Don’t be fooled by leaves that appear to “turn” ahead of peak season—it could be leaf scorch, which is common during periods of drought.
“Depending on how bad of a drought you’re in and how stressed the trees are. You see the leaves crinkle and die before they can even change,” says Stephanie Spera, an associate professor of geography, environment, and sustainability at the University of Richmond.
All these factors mean it’s just going to become increasingly difficult to predict when peak foliage might be. “There are changes afoot, and I think knowing when [peak foliage] is going to be each year is actually a harder thing to predict,” says Martine.
When is the best weekend to view fall foliage? For the most part, that’s anyone’s guess, according to Spera.
“You’re just gonna have to bet on a weekend and hope for the best,” she says.
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