Republicans who built part of their redistricting strategy around Donald Trump’s gains with Latino men are now facing the prospect that the bet could backfire in the midterms, according to Axios.
Latino voters, whose shift toward Trump helped power his 2024 victory, are moving sharply back toward Democrats, Axios reports, citing new polling. Republicans drew pieces of their 2026 strategy, including newly drawn House districts in Texas and Florida, on the assumption that those gains would last. Axios says the reversal “complicates that bet” in key races.
Latino men have experienced particular “whiplash,” Axios reported. Hillary Clinton won them by 31 points in 2016, according to Edison exit polling, and Joe Biden won them by 23 in 2020. In 2024, Trump won them by 10. An NBC News/Telemundo poll of 800 registered Latino voters, conducted Sept. 21-28 with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, now finds Latino men preferring Democratic control of Congress, 53% to 39%. Among all Latino voters, it’s 59% to 35%, a 24-point Democratic edge. Trump’s approval stands at 27% among Latino voters overall and 33% among Latino men.
Axios reports that a majority of Latino voters say their congressional vote “will be a signal against Trump.” Nearly two-thirds say their income is falling behind the cost of living, almost exactly where that number stood in 2024, but 78% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the issue, Axios said.
Immigration enforcement is also “driving the backlash.” In the NBC poll, 67% say Trump’s enforcement has gone too far. Axios reports that 31% say they or someone close to them now carries ID because of ICE concerns, and 27% know someone who has been detained or deported.
Raw Story has reported on Latino voters turning on the Texas GOP and on signs the party’s gerrymander is backfiring. Democrats, Axios notes, haven’t recovered all the ground they lost with Latino voters over the last decade.
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