A new New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats gaining across five red states since June. One of the biggest swings is in Texas, where Republican Gov. Greg Abbott now trails his Democratic challenger.
Political data analyst Adam Carlson posted a chart comparing the Times/Siena polls from June with the latest round, taken in late September and early October.
“Sheesh,” Carlson wrote.
The biggest shift was in the Texas governor’s race. In June, Abbott led Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 6 points. Now Hinojosa is up by 4, a 10-point swing toward Democrats.
Other races moved the same way. In Alaska’s Senate race, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan led by 2 in June, and now Democrat Mary Peltola leads by 7. In Iowa’s governor’s race, Democrat Rob Sand went from a 2-point lead to an 11-point lead. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown erased a 3-point deficit against Sen. Jon Husted and now leads by 3.
“This is wild,” writer and podcast host Molly Jong-Fast wrote while sharing the chart.
Daniele Angrisani, an Italian journalist who founded the U.S. politics site Focus America, said a loss for Abbott would mean far more than a typical bad night for Republicans.
“If Abbott, one of the most powerful and prominent Republican governors in the United States, were truly to lose the reelection challenge against Hinojosa, it wouldn’t just be a blue wave anymore,” he wrote in Italian. “But a full-blown devastating tsunami for the Republicans.”
Kasey O’Brien, a vice president at the progressive digital firm Middle Seat, cheered the result: “D+10 shift for Gina Hinojosa — let’s go!”
Republicans held their ground in a few places. Carlson noted that Iowa Senate candidate Ashley Hinson is “the only Republican candidate who has not experienced much slippage” since June. She still leads Democrat Josh Turek by 1. In Kansas, Republican Ty Masterson leads the governor’s race by 4. Rep. Nick Begich (R-Alaska) also leads his race by 6.
This is wild https://t.co/Qc7V0f6Lbh — Molly Jong-Fast (@MollyJongFast) October 3, 2026
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