Hundreds of thousands of immigrants with legal status are at risk of losing government health coverage starting Oct. 1, state data shows, signaling that the impact of Medicaid changes in President Donald Trump’s signature legislation from 2025 may be greater than expected.
Many lawfully present immigrants will be among the first people to lose Medicaid coverage under congressional Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill, which is expected to cut spending by more than $900 billion through 2034 for the state-federal health program for people with low incomes or disabilities. The law will strip many more immigrants of their Affordable Care Act plan subsidies and Medicare coverage next year.
Those losing their health benefits who were eligible in the past include refugees of war, asylees who fled persecution, victims of sex trafficking, and interpreters who risked their lives assisting U.S. service members in Afghanistan — all of whom are in the country with the federal government’s permission. The law does not affect coverage for a few groups, including those who hold green cards.
The Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan budget scorekeeper, estimated that the law’s changes eliminating Medicaid eligibility for many noncitizen adults with legal status would lead to about 100,000 more immigrants being uninsured by 2034.
KFF Health News asked several states how many Medicaid enrollees they had identified as being at risk of losing coverage under the provision. More than 281,000 immigrants from nine states and the District of Columbia are expected to lose Medicaid in October.
While some may be able to obtain coverage elsewhere, the state numbers suggest that hundreds of thousands of immigrants nationally are at imminent risk of becoming uninsured.
The CBO declined to comment.
Florida alone identified nearly 177,000 immigrants who would no longer qualify for the state’s Medicaid program starting in October, said Anna Holaday, spokesperson for the Florida Department of Children and Families. The agency verified the enrollees’ immigration status through government databases and sent notices to people to give them an opportunity to provide more information proving they remain eligible, Holaday said.
Arizona predicts that nearly 28,000 could lose eligibility. New Jersey expects 15,000 to 25,000 of its noncitizen residents to lose their Medicaid coverage. In North Carolina, it’s about 29,000, and in Washington state it’s 11,000. Final numbers from states on how many Medicaid enrollees have been terminated from the program won’t be available until later this fall.
Lawmakers rely on the CBO to understand the budgetary and economic effects of proposed legislation. Yet the federal agency did not publish estimates on the One Big Beautiful Bill’s impact on noncitizens enrolled in Medicaid until a month after Congress passed the bill and Trump signed it into law.
Much of the attention around Medicaid changes in the law has centered on implementation of work requirements as a new condition of eligibility for many enrollees starting in January. The CBO estimates the requirements will increase the number of uninsured Americans by about 5 million by 2034.
Without health coverage, immigrants are likely to lose access to doctors, prescription drugs and most other medical services. They still could qualify for coverage of emergency care under a separate program known as Emergency Medicaid.
“I came here to live a better life,” said Ahin, a refugee who left war-torn Syria for Turkey in 2011 and came to the United States in October 2024. She spoke with KFF Health News on the condition that she be identified by only her first name, out of concern for her privacy and security.
Soon after arriving in the U.S., she developed severe abdominal pain that required intestinal surgery. Those costs, along with ongoing visits to specialists, were covered by Medicaid.
“I’m really worried about this,” she said. “It’s truly a terrible situation.”
Ahin, 25, said she doesn’t know what she will do if she needs to go to the hospital — she wouldn’t be able to pay the bill. She lives in a small apartment in New Jersey with her mother. Medicaid has also been vital to her mother, who has asthma.
Losing health benefits
The federal government required states to notify immigrants who will soon lose coverage, but immigrant rights advocates say some states did not begin sending letters until September. That’s given enrollees little time to react, including to respond if the state was mistakenly ending their coverage.
Cutting off Medicaid coverage is just the first move to drop government health benefits provided to many lawfully present immigrants. Under a change starting in January, the CBO estimates, about 1 million will lose eligibility for government subsidies to buy individual health coverage on Affordable Care Act marketplaces by 2034. And they will also lose access to Medicare, a change expected to affect about 100,000 immigrants, the agency forecasts.
Trump has argued that taxpayer-funded programs should be reserved for American citizens. As Congress debated the legislation in May 2025, the White House put out a news release with the misleading claim that the One Big Beautiful Bill would remove Medicaid coverage for people who are in the country without authorization.
Under long-standing law, people who are in the country without authorization do not qualify for the general Medicaid program that is funded by state and federal dollars.
The health coverage cuts are part of a broader Trump strategy to send a message that immigrants are not welcome in the United States, said Ben D’Avanzo, senior strategist for federal advocacy at the National Immigration Law Center. The Trump administration has also moved to kick people with legal status off the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, and tried to do the same with the children’s program Head Start until a federal judge intervened.
In addition to green-card holders, people under age 19, as well as immigrants from Cuba, Haiti or certain Pacific Island countries, will not see their Medicaid coverage affected by the law.
States try to fill the gaps
Some states are staving off the coverage loss using their own money. California expects about 148,000 immigrants to lose Medicaid coverage. But the state is spending $365 million for a separate program to keep them covered until July 2027, according to Tony Cava, spokesperson for the California Department of Health Care Services.
New York and Pennsylvania also have state-funded health coverage for many of the immigrants who are affected.
Carlos Alarcón, health and public benefits policy manager with the California Immigrant Policy Center, an advocacy group, said taking away health coverage for immigrants will affect the health of the state as a whole. The fewer people who have access to health care, the easier it will be for contagious diseases to spread, as happened during the covid pandemic, he said.
Alarcón said he hopes the state-funded coverage will be extended under California’s next governor. Polling released in September showed Democrat Xavier Becerra, who served as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services under President Joe Biden, leading Republican Steve Hilton in the gubernatorial race. Becerra has vowed to issue an executive order to maintain health coverage for every Californian affected by federal cuts.
“I believe there’s folks in the legislature that will really want to fight to make sure that we restore things as much as we can,” Alarcón said.
Refugee assistance groups say they have been trying to educate people in their communities and direct them to health clinics that are government-funded or free.
“We’ve just been scrambling trying to find free medical care,” said Julianna Larsen, co-founder of the Arizona Refugee Center. “To not be a welcoming place is the most un-American thing I’ve ever experienced.”
Andrea Mendez Perez, director at Interfaith-RISE, a refugee resettlement organization in southern New Jersey, said the Trump administration has lengthened the process for people to get green cards and is now taking away coverage from those without them. Before 2025, it typically took about six months to qualify for a green card, documentation that allows a foreign national to live and work permanently in the United States, she said. Today, it’s well over a year.
For many of these immigrants on Medicaid, losing their ability to get their prescribed medications “is a life-or-death situation,” Mendez Perez said.
Ahin, the Syrian refugee, applied for permanent residency soon after arriving in the U.S. two years ago. Mendez Perez said she should have her green card by now, which would have spared her from being dropped under the GOP law. “She is stuck in the middle and has no control.”
Colleen McCauley, policy and advocacy director at the Camden Coalition, a nonprofit that helps connect people to health care in southern New Jersey, said the loss of coverage is devastating.
“None of them did anything wrong,” McCauley said, “and they are losing coverage.”
KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF — the independent source for health policy research, polling, and journalism.
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