AUSTIN — The Texas Tribune Festival here over the weekend was friendly territory for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico. The First Baptist Church downtown was filled to capacity for a Talarico visit, and if the crowd were any more enthusiastic, you’d have thought it was the 1950s and Elvis Presley had showed up. But it’s hard to blame them; for the first time in a long while, Texas Democrats have persuasive reasons to think their guy will win.
Democrats haven’t won a statewide election in Texas for 32 years — the longest streak for any major party in any state. During that time, a recurring phenomenon has been the belief by credulous outsiders that this is the year that Democrats finally win again. But, tens of millions of dollars in Democratic campaign donations later, whether trying to elect Wendy Davis and her pink sneakers or stoke Betomania for Beto O’Rourke’s two Senate bids, Texas voters had other ideas.
All streaks come to an end, though, and there are good reasons to think that this year, Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton is weak enough, and Talarico, a state representative, is strong enough, to eke out a win.
To make it a race, Talarico probably needs four or five factors to break his way. By my count, he has at least seven.
1. A messy GOP primary, with lingering bad blood. Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn, a reliable general-election winner, was rejected by GOP primary voters in favor of Paxton, the state’s scandal-ridden attorney general, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump. Cornyn’s not interested in lifting a finger to help Paxton; asked if Paxton deserves to be a senator by CNN, Cornyn shrugged, “I’ll let the voters decide that one.”
2. A unified Texas Democratic party. After Talarico’s sharp-elbowed primary win over his African American opponent, Jasmine Crockett, Republicans told themselves that Black voters wouldn’t support Talarico. A survey this summer of 500 Black voters in the state by Texas Southern University found just 7 percent said they were less likely to show up in November because of Crockett’s primary loss. A late-July Fox News poll showed 87 percent of Black respondents intended to vote for Talarico and just 13 percent for Paxton.
3. Paxton continuing his bad habits. Political commentator Mark Halperin, after talking with Republican voters last month, channeled the frustration he heard from many of them about Paxton: “He is lazy. He’s a horrible fundraiser. He cannot answer questions about the controversies that reporters are going to ask him about. He has alienated suburban voters, including suburban women.”
4. Trump unpopular in Texas. If the president’s job approval rating were around 50 percent nationally, the entire political landscape would look dramatically different. But it’s bad nationally — and in the red Lone Star state: 42 percent. Trump can spend a lot of money on ads for Paxton, but his endorsement, by itself, is unlikely to be enough to put him over the top.
5. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott less popular than usual. Paxton has won statewide three times as state attorney general, but in each case he ran anywhere from about a half a percentage point to five percentage points behind the Republican governor. In October 2018, Abbott’s job approval rating was 52 percent and his disapproval was 32 percent. Last month, his approval was at 43 percent and his disapproval was at 46 percent, and polling in the governor’s race is much closer than in past cycles. This time around, Abbott may not have the coattails to carry the rest of the ticket.
6. High gas and diesel prices. Texas is a big state, and Texans drive a lot. The average price for a gallon of unleaded or diesel in Texas is about 55 cents less expensive than the national average, but the price of unleaded in Texas is still $1.22 more than a year ago, and diesel in Texas is $2.69 more than a year ago. It’s a ready-made issue to stir frustration with the party in power.
7. A Texas Republican reminding voters about the party’s racist streak. Most election cycles, the Texas Railroad Commissioner race attracts little or no attention. Not this year. The GOP candidate, Bo French, interrupted celebrations of University of Texas Longhorns’ amazing come-from-behind victory over Ohio State to sneer online at a photo of jubilant UT fans who appeared to be South Asian.
On X, Paxton offered the most generic criticism of French — “I condemn racism in all its forms” — before quickly pivoting to attacking Talarico. With all his other headwinds, the last thing Paxton needed was French’s outburst, and the next-to-last thing he needed was to issue such a feckless response.
Add it up, and Talarico has the best shot since Democrat Bob Bullock won the lieutenant governor’s race in 1994 even as Republican George W. Bush won the governor’s race. The GOP has had some rough patches over the past few decades, but this may well mark a new low: The mood of the country may be sour enough that Texas could put a Democrat in the Senate.
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