Republicans are pouring an unprecedented sum into Texas to rescue Attorney General Ken Paxton’s Senate campaign, but the flood of cash has yet to break open a race that remains deadlocked five weeks before Election Day.
GOP-aligned groups plan to spend $166 million backing Paxton between the start of September and Election Day, more than they intend to spend in the competitive Senate races in Michigan and Maine put together, reported CNN.
Only Ohio, where Sen. Jon Husted faces former Sen. Sherrod Brown, is slated to draw more Republican money. Counting the tens of millions of dollars GOP groups spent trying to sink Paxton in the primary, the party’s total tab in Texas is expected to top $300 million.
Despite outspending Democrats by more than 5-to-1 over the final two months, Republicans have not pulled Paxton ahead of Democrat James Talarico in public polling, and two Democratic operatives told CNN that Talarico’s internal numbers have held largely steady since the GOP spending blitz began.
Some prominent Texas Republicans are openly uneasy about the race. Rep. Michael McCaul, who supported Sen. John Cornyn in the primary, said the party needs the money to hold the seat.
“I think we are looking at the numbers going down, [and] the top of the ticket is not helpful for down-ballot candidates,” McCaul told CNN. “Now we have a nominee that could – potentially – we could lose the seat over. So I think there is a bit of a dire warning now coming out of the state that we need help to keep that seat Republican.”
GOP strategist Karl Rove was even more direct when asked Saturday at the Texas Tribune Festival whether the spending was a wise use of the Senate Leadership Fund’s resources.
“No, but they’re going to have to do it, and that’s just the start,” Rove said. “If John Cornyn were the nominee, this race would be over.”
The spending has also proven inefficient. Because super PACs pay higher ad rates than candidates, the main pro-Paxton group, Texas PAC, is paying what one Democratic operative called an “absolutely punishing premium,” sometimes as much as five times what Talarico’s campaign pays. In the Dallas-Fort Worth market last week, Texas PAC outspent Talarico nearly 4-to-1 but earned less than double the ratings points.
Much of the pro-Paxton advertising has aired during college football games and daytime staples like “Judge Judy,” where one spot ran 258 times in September. Democrats have answered with an ad on the same show branding Paxton “the most corrupt politician in Texas.”
The spending comes as Republicans face a difficult midterm environment, with President Donald Trump’s approval at 33 percent in a recent CNN poll.
The Senate Leadership Fund said its Texas investment “affirms our commitment to maintaining the Republican majority,” and an official insisted it is not diverting money from other states. Paxton’s campaign, meanwhile, did not respond to multiple CNN requests for comment.
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