As former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi prepares to retire from Congress after nearly four decades, early polling suggests her daughter, Christine Pelosi, faces an uphill battle to succeed her in representing California’s 11th Congressional District.
A recent EMC Research poll of 500 registered San Francisco voters found that Christine Pelosi holds a favorability rating of just 21% among potential candidates. That places her far behind State Senator Scott Wiener, who leads with a commanding 61% favorability rating. The findings, reported by The San Francisco Standard and Metro Weekly, underscore how the race to replace Pelosi could mark a generational shift in San Francisco politics.
The same poll revealed that 51% of voters prefer to elect “someone other than Nancy Pelosi” in 2026 — a clear sign that many constituents are looking for new leadership, even as they express respect for the Pelosi family’s long-standing service.
Christine Pelosi, a Democratic strategist, attorney, and author, has been a fixture in state and national party politics for years. She has served as chair of the California Democratic Party’s Women’s Caucus and written extensively on grassroots campaigning. Though she has filed preliminary paperwork to run for the seat, she has not yet launched a full campaign.
Political observers say her challenge lies in balancing her family’s legacy with the district’s appetite for change. “She has name recognition, but not yet the grassroots enthusiasm that’s driving some of the other candidates,” said Bay Area political analyst John Avalos in comments to the San Francisco Chronicle. “If the race becomes a referendum on continuity versus change, she’ll have to fight to define which side she’s on.”
Meanwhile, Scott Wiener, a longtime state senator and leading figure in California’s progressive wing, has already launched his campaign and secured early support from major Democratic donors, according to The Guardian. Another contender, Saikat Chakrabarti, the former chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has positioned himself as the insurgent progressive in the race, calling for aggressive action on climate and economic reform.
Given the current polling, Christine Pelosi’s chances of victory appear modest — estimated around 20 to 30 percent according to analysts, due to her lower favorability and limited campaign infrastructure. Still, the race remains fluid, and with her family’s deep ties to the district and national Democratic circles, her fortunes could shift quickly if she enters the race in earnest.
For now, San Francisco’s post-Pelosi political landscape is shaping up as a contest between continuity and change — and Christine Pelosi must convince voters that she represents more than just a famous name.
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