China’s carbon emissions are expected to peak later than previously forecast, a survey of climate experts finds.
Only one in five surveyed experts believe China’s emissions have already peaked or will peak this year, the fourth edition of Chinaʼs Climate Transition Outlook showed on Thursday.
Seven in 10 experts said they expected emissions to peak by the end of the decade with 2028 chosen as the likely peak year by the greatest number of respondents, according to the survey.
In 2024’s survey, 44 percent of respondents said they expected emissions to peak in 2025 or earlier.
The survey is conducted annually by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and the International Society for Energy Transition Studies, based in Helsinki, Finland, and Sydney, Australia, respectively.
This year’s edition surveyed 68 climate analysts spanning universities, government departments, and the energy and sustainable development sectors.
China’s climate policies are closely watched worldwide because the country is the biggest single emitter of greenhouse gases.
Beijing’s climate policies are viewed as especially critical in the context of the United States’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in January by President Donald Trump.
The accord, adopted by 194 countries and the European Union in 2015, calls for the rise in the average global temperature to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
China in September announced it would lower its emissions by 7 to 10 percent from their peak by 2035, marking the first time it had set out a target for cutting them outright.
Climate experts said China’s target falls far short of the action needed to avert catastrophic climate change although many analysts believe the country is likely to exceed its goal.
In Thursday’s survey, more than two-thirds of respondents said they expected China to “slightly” or “significantly” beat the emissions reduction target.
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