To get it out of the way: No, Taylor Swift’s name will not dominate nominations for the 68th Grammy Awards when they’re announced Friday morning. Because it came out in early October, the pop superstar’s mega-blockbuster “The Life of a Showgirl” wasn’t eligible for consideration for next year’s ceremony (whose window ran from Aug. 31, 2024, to Aug. 30, 2025). So you’ll have to wait until next fall to see the Recording Academy bestow Swift with her eighth nomination for album of the year, as indeed it’s sure to do. For now, here are our bets for who’s likely to show up in the Grammys’ Top 4 categories, with potential honorees listed in alphabetical order. Music’s most prestigious awards show will take place Feb. 1 at Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Bad Bunny, “Debí Tirar Más Fotos”Justin Bieber, “Swag”Sabrina Carpenter, “Man’s Best Friend”Elton John & Brandi Carlile, “Who Believes in Angels?”Lady Gaga, “Mayhem”Kendrick Lamar, “GNX”Laufey, “A Matter of Time”Tyler, the Creator, “Chromakopia”
Possible surprise: The Weeknd, “Hurry Up Tomorrow”
Lamar and Gaga are both perennial nominees for the Grammys’ flagship prize (though neither has ever won), and Bad Bunny’s chances were only bolstered by his selection to headline next year’s Super Bowl halftime show. The Recording Academy can’t get enough of young fogeys like Laufey, whose pop-jazz balladry might evoke voters’ memories of Norah Jones. And watch out for a possible appearance by the Weeknd following his highly theatrical reconciliation with the academy (after a yearslong boycott) during this past February’s show.
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Justin Bieber, “Daisies”Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”Billie Eilish, “Wildflower”Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra”Kendrick Lamar and SZA, “Luther”Chappell Roan, “The Subway”Rosé and Bruno Mars, “Apt.”Alex Warren, “Ordinary”
Possible surprise: Huntr/x, “Golden”
Lamar won this category in February with “Not Like Us,” which means he’d almost certainly turn up again even if “Luther” hadn’t topped Billboard’s Hot 100 for 13 weeks. (Once you’re in with the academy, you’re generally in — see Eilish’s five previous nods for record of the year.) Roan’s “The Subway” didn’t have the commercial legs of some of her earlier hits, but it’s the type of grandly emotional ballad that voters love. A nod for “Apt.” or for “Golden,” the latter from Netflix’s inescapable “KPop Demon Hunters,” would be the first for a K-pop act in record of the year; “Golden” would be the first track by a cartoon group to be nominated since, uh, “The Chipmunk Song” in 1959.
SONG OF THE YEAR
“Daisies,” written by Eddie Benjamin, Justin Bieber, Daniel Chetrit, Dijon, Tobias Jesso Jr., Carter Lang, Mk.gee and Dylan Wiggins (performed by Justin Bieber)“Lover Girl,” written by Laufey and Spencer Stewart (performed by Laufey)“Luther,” written by Jack Antonoff, Roshwita Bacha, Matthew Bernard, Atia Boggs, Scott Bridgeway, Sam Dew, Marvin Gaye, Kendrick Lamar, Mark Spears, SZA and Kamasi Washington (performed by Kendrick Lamar and SZA)“Manchild,” written by Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff and Sabrina Carpenter (performed by Sabrina Carpenter)“Ordinary,” written by Mags Duval, Cal Shaprio, Alex Warren and Adam Yaron (performed by Alex Warren)“That’s So True,” written by Gracie Abrams and Audrey Hobert (performed by Gracie Abrams)“The Subway,” written by Daniel Nigro and Chappell Roan (performed by Chappell Roan)“Wildflower,” written by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (performed by Billie Eilish)
Possible surprise: “All My Love,” written by Guy Berryman, Jonny Buckland, Will Champion, Chris Martin and Moses Martin (performed by Coldplay)
At the most recent Grammys ceremony, five of the eight nominees for record of the year were also nominated for song of the year. (The record prize goes to performers and producers, while song of the year goes to songwriters.) So expect plenty of overlap here along with possible nods for songs by Gracie Abrams — a Taylor disciple in a year with no Taylor — Laufey and Coldplay, the last of whom has stayed competitive at the Grammys for way longer than you might have thought.
BEST NEW ARTIST
Olivia DeanRavyn LenaeMegan Moroney Gigi Perez Sombr Leon ThomasAlex WarrenLola Young
Possible surprise: Jensen McRae
Of this year’s fresh hitmakers, Warren has had the most chart success by far with his brooding (and quasi-Christian) “Ordinary,” which has logged 10 weeks at No. 1 and racked up more than 1 billion streams on Spotify. Yet women have easily outnumbered men in this category over the last decade — the last guy to actually win was Chance the Rapper in 2017 — which means nominations will probably go to the likes of Moroney, the crafty country star; Lenae, of “Love Me Not” fame; and Dean and Young, both of whom belong in a long lineage of Grammy-fave U.K. soul singers that also includes Adele, Sam Smith and Amy Winehouse. A nod for McRae, an L.A.-based up-and-comer with a flair for the folk-pop confessional, is no doubt a long shot — at least until you remember that her indie label, Dead Oceans, made it into the race last year with Khruangbin.
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