Proposition 50’s big win Tuesday night is a political earthquake that is being felt nationally.
Here are four takeaways:
1. Trump’s toxicity in California
Proposition 50 supporters tried to make the ballot measure a referendum on President Trump — and it clearly worked.
California has been a blue state for decades, but Trump’s second term has been particularly trying for critics.
Huntington Beach resident Miko Vaughn, 48, supported Proposition 50 and saw the battle as a proxy war between President Trump and Gov. Gavin Newsom. It’s just “against Trump,” she said. “I feel like there’s not much we can do individually, so it does feel good to do something.”
Indeed, a CNN exit poll of California voters found that about half said their vote on Proposition 50 was a way of opposing Trump.
“Trump is such a polarizing figure,” said Rick Hasen, a professor of law and political science at UCLA. “He commands great loyalty from one group of people and great animosity from others.”
2. End of an independent era?
Proposition 50, a ballot measure about redrawing the state’s congressional districts, was crafted by Democrats in response to Trump urging Texas and other GOP-majority states to modify their congressional maps to favor Republicans, a move that was designed to maintain Republican control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
California has been somewhat of an outlier. Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger created — and voters approved in 2010 — an independent redistricting commission aimed at keeping politics out of the process of drawing congressional districts.
The panel of 14 citizens works to create districts for state lawmakers and for members of Congress that are contiguous and roughly equal in population. The districts must also follow the federal Voting Rights Act and group together “communities of interest,” a wide-reaching term of art for people who share languages, cultures, backgrounds, interests, ways of life or other traits.
Matt Lesenyie, an assistant professor of political science at Cal State Long Beach, said the vote on Proposition 50 marks the end of an era for this process — and perhaps for the hope for fair politics.
Many political scientists have long opposed political gerrymandering, applauding states like California for moving to an independent model where politicians aren’t determining boundaries. But not enough states joined California in that effort, Lesenyie said.
“California probably should have done this — against my better judgment — a long time ago in acknowledging that our politics have become so extremely polarized and that we can’t in California hold that dam break back by ourselves,” he said.
3. Big win for Newsom
Newsom has emerged as a foil to Trump this year, challenging him on a variety of issues from environment to immigration and mocking him on X.
Proposition 50 was a risk for Newsom, but it immediately became a rallying cry for Democrats looking for a way to fight back. Now, he can take his victory lap.
“After poking the bear, this bear roared,” Newsom said Tuesday night.
Newsom said he was proud of California for standing up to Trump and called on other states with Democratic-controlled legislatures to pass their own redistricting plans.
“I hope it’s dawning on people, the sobriety of this moment,” he said.
Newsom recently announced he is considering a run for president in 2028.
4. More polarization
The biggest loser from Tuesday night? California Republicans.
California has 43 Democrats and nine Republicans in the House. Proposition 50 would shift five more House districts into competitive or easily winnable territory for Democrats.
The new map would eliminate the Inland Empire district of Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona), the longest-serving member of California’s Republican delegation, and create a new seat in Los Angeles County that would skew heavily toward Democrats.
The map would also dilute the number of GOP voters in the districts represented by Reps. Doug LaMalfa in Northern California, Kevin Kiley in Greater Sacramento, David Valadao in the San Joaquin Valley and Darrell Issa near San Diego.
The maps would apply to the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. After the 2030 U.S. Census, California would return to having its lines drawn by the independent redistricting panel.
Proposition 50 opponents cried foul, saying they were disenfranchised. Trump has mused about cutting some funding to California. And a lot of GOP voters are angry.
California Republicans on Wednesday filed a lawsuit arguing the redistricting maps are unconstitutional because they use voters’ race as a factor in drawing districts.
Race engine builder and Republican Robert Jung, 69, said, “The changes are politically motivated.”
“It doesn’t seem right to do this just to gain five seats. I know they did it in Texas, but we don’t have to do it just because they did it,” the Torrance resident said.
Disabled Army veteran Micah Corpe, 50, added that Proposition 50 is the result of Newsom believing he can “do whatever he wants because he doesn’t like Trump.”
Times staff writers Seema Mehta and Laura J. Nelson contributed to this report.
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