Andrew here. There is so much to unpack about last night’s election results; we dive into all of it below. Clearly Democrats won big all around the nation, perhaps as a repudiation of sorts of the Trump administration. Having said that, the victory by Zohran Mamdani raises new questions about whether his success will spur other Democratic candidates to go farther left and become more populist.
It also raises enormous questions for New York City — the capital of capitalism is set to be led by a democratic socialist — and perhaps for the future of American capitalism more broadly. Amid growing inequality and an affordability crisis, will Americans turn toward socialism, or is this just a politically idiosyncratic moment? Many corporate leaders have warned that businesses and wealthy individuals would leave the city if he won, and we will be watching to see whether that actually happens.
Also: Gov. Gavin Newsom’s political career got a boost last night, and we’ve got some thoughts on the role of prediction markets.
The election takeaways
Tuesday’s election results were awash in blue, as Democrats won major contests across the nation, including in New York City and California.
The winners — like Zohran Mamdani, Representative Mikie Sherrill, Abigail Spanberger and Gov. Gavin Newsom — may reflect different parts of the political spectrum. But their victories also represent pushback to parts of President Trump’s agenda.
What to know:
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Mamdani handily beat Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa, the Republican, in New York’s mayoral race, overcoming widespread opposition from the city’s business elite.
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Newsom’s plan to redraw California’s congressional district lines in Democrats’ favor won significant support.
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Sherrill decisively defeated Jack Ciattarelli, whom Trump endorsed, in the New Jersey governor’s race.
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Spanberger beat Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and will become Virginia’s first female governor.
The results reflect Democratic anger at Trump:
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The California redistricting plan, Proposition 50, was explicitly aimed at efforts by Trump and Republican allies to rejigger state maps in the G.O.P.’s favor.
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Mamdani mentioned Trump by name eight times in his victory speech, pledging to stand up for immigrants and unions.
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Sherrill made opposing Trump a centerpiece of her campaign, seizing on the president’s announcement that his administration had “terminated” construction on a $16 billion tunnel connecting New Jersey and New York meant to help her state’s commuters.
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Spanberger’s big margins came in large part from Washington suburbs that have been hugely affected by the government shutdown.
That said, political observers (and Trump himself) noted that Republican turnout was most likely lower in part because the president himself wasn’t on the ballot. Trump also suggested that the shutdown, having entered a record 36th day, weighed on voters.
Affordability was a common theme. The higher cost of everyday life — including rent, electricity and groceries — was a message shared by Mamdani, Sherrill and Spanberger, Politico notes.
Democratic Party officials see it as a potentially winning message against Republicans in midterms next year, hoping to link the costs of Trump’s trade war and other policies to voters’ fears about their pocketbooks.
The California win may also bolster Newsom’s prospects for a presidential run. The governor, who raised more than $100 million in support of Proposition 50 from backers including the billionaires Reed Hastings, Michael Moritz and George Soros, has emerged as a leading standard-bearer for Democrats.
Prediction markets again nailed the results. Bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket on Tuesday wagered heavily on Democratic wins, even as some polls had suggested tight races in New Jersey and Virginia.
Last night’s results will probably further bolster the sites’ reputations as mostly reliable political predictors.
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
Investor jitters hit Big Tech and crypto. Markets in Asia and Europe were down on Wednesday, as were futures in the tech-heavy Nasdaq, amid worries about sky-high valuations for artificial intelligence-related stocks. A sell-off in chip companies including Samsung Electronics, Advantest and TSMC — all suppliers to Nvidia — wiped out $500 billion in combined market value, while shares in SoftBank, which has bet heavily on A.I., fell 10 percent. Crypto also plunged, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 on Tuesday for the first time since June.
The Trump administration nears deals with makers of obesity drugs. Federal officials have been negotiating with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to sell doses of some of their obesity drugs on TrumpRx.gov for $149 a month, The Wall Street Journal reports, with an announcement set for Thursday if deals are reached. Novo Nordisk on Wednesday lowered its growth outlook for the year, citing price competition. Separately, Novo Nordisk and Pfizer raised their bids for the weight-loss drug developer Metsera.
JPMorgan Chase says it’s being investigated over debanking claims. The bank disclosed in a regulatory filing that it was answering inquiries from government officials and others after President Trump ordered banking regulators to review cases in which banks were accused of discriminating against conservative customers. Trump has accused both JPMorgan and Bank of America of refusing his business after his defense of those who attacked the Capitol in 2021.
An Elon Musk ally is nominated again to run NASA. Trump renamed Jared Isaacman to lead the space agency after pulling his nomination in June after the president had a falling-out with Musk. Isaacman, a billionaire entrepreneur who led two private missions to orbit on rockets from SpaceX, has contributed to Democratic candidates, which reportedly also upset Trump.
Business leaders respond to Mamdani’s win
Wall Street spent millions in a failed effort to derail Zohran Mamdani’s rise to power.
Now that the 34-year-old democratic socialist has been elected New York’s youngest mayor in more than a century, many of the city’s business leaders are bracing for what’s next.
The reaction falls into three camps:
Keep up the fight: Many on Wall Street view Mamdani’s progressive politics — including taxing the rich and big corporations — as bad for business. Others fear that Mamdani’s past criticism of the city’s police will negatively affect public safety, making it harder for businesses to recruit and maintain staff in the city.
Some states are watching the potential fallout. The Florida Council of 100, a pro-business group, is set to release a statement on Wednesday, a draft of which was viewed by The Times. The statement targeted to New York executives by promoting the state’s “pro-growth environment and a commitment to opportunity.”
(Mamdani’s criticism of the Israeli government and the prospect of landing on President Trump’s enemies list are also chief worries.)
Some are turning their attention to Albany. “Guys like me are definitely seriously considering” lobbying state lawmakers to limit the Mamdani agenda, David Modiano, a managing director at Thales Capital, told The Times.
Others vow to oppose single issues, like Mamdani’s plan to open city-run grocery stores. “Just because he campaigned on it doesn’t mean he’ll be able to implement it,” David Schwartz, the director of the New York Association of Grocery Stores, told Reuters.
Sound the alarms: Some real estate executives say Mamdani’s rent-freeze plan could backfire. “You’re just going to have a lot less attraction of people to build the housing that we need, which Zohran acknowledges that we need so desperately,” Kenny Burgos, the C.E.O. of the New York Apartment Association, a trade group that represents building owners and managers, told Fox Business.
Extend an olive branch: Several business leaders had warned that a Mamdani win would lead to an exodus of the city’s wealthy to lower-tax states, but those predictions have quieted recently. The mood seemed to improve after several prominent New Yorkers, including Jamie Dimon and Mike Bloomberg, spoke with Mamdani in the final weeks of the campaign to discuss the city’s most pressing issues.
Since then, Jane Fraser, the C.E.O. of Citigroup, the billionaire crypto investor Mike Novogratz and Ralph Schlosstein, a co-founder of BlackRock, are among those who have thrown tacit support behind Mamdani, according to Bloomberg. “I do care deeply about the city, and I’m not going anywhere, whoever the mayor is. I’m going to do whatever I can to help be successful,” Schlosstein said.
Even Bill Ackman, a fierce Mamdani critic who helped bankroll Andrew Cuomo’s failed mayoral bid, seems to be throwing in the towel. “Congrats on the win,” he wrote on X. “Now you have a big responsibility. If I can help NYC, just let me know what I can do.”
“Today’s first-time buyers are building less housing wealth and will likely have fewer moves over a lifetime as a result.”
— Jessica Lautz, an economist for the National Association of Realtors, on a potentially momentous new development: The median age of first-time American house buyers has hit 40, as younger people are increasingly priced out of the market. The trade group has called on lawmakers to adopt policies to bolster housing supply and bring costs down.
Mamdani’s other tax gambit
Zohran Mamdani won on a promise to combat New York’s rising cost of living by providing more affordable housing, fast and free buses and universal child care. Funding that agenda rests on taxing the wealthiest New Yorkers and the largest corporations.
A lot of attention has gone to Mamdani’s plan to raise taxes 2 percent on New Yorkers making more than $1 million a year. Niko Gallogly has the run down on the other half of his plan: raising New York’s corporate tax rate to 11.5 percent.
First, some context:
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New York’s 7.25 percent corporate tax rate is already the 17th highest in the nation. Some corporate taxes in the state are higher than in all neighboring states and other major states like California and Illinois. Business havens like Nevada and Texas have a 0 percent rate.
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Mamdani’s proposed rate hike would tie New York with New Jersey for the highest corporate tax rate in the country.
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Mamdani has argued that President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts slashed federal corporate taxes to 21 percent from 35 percent, which would theoretically allow corporations to pay more in state taxes. His campaign estimates the move would generate about $5 billion in annual revenue
Executives say Mamdani’s plan would make New York less competitive. Julie Samuels, the president and C.E.O. of the industry group Tech:NYC, told DealBook that the possibility of higher corporate taxes was raising “a lot of concern across business leaders.”
While companies are unlikely to flee en masse if the proposal becomes policy, the departure of some New York firms during the pandemic, including the investment firm Elliott Investment Management, underline the possibility that some may go. Businesses could also respond by growing head count outside Manhattan, where they can pay lower wages and taxes.
Ultimately, a corporate tax hike isn’t up to Mamdani. The plan requires approval from the State Legislature and Gov. Kathy Hochul, who has said she does not intend to increase taxes, but is up for re-election and faces a primary challenge from the left. For business leaders, “all eyes will be on Albany,” Samuels said.
THE SPEED READ
Deals
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Yum! Brands said it was exploring strategic options for its struggling Pizza Hut chain, including a sale. (NYT)
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The Justice Department cleared Google’s $32 billion deal to buy the cybersecurity firm Wiz. (Bloomberg)
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One of the largest shareholders in Victoria’s Secret, the Australian investment firm BBRC International, called for the removal of Donna James as the clothing company’s chair. (WSJ)
Politics, policy and regulation
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Some senators said they were optimistic about a potential bipartisan deal to end the government shutdown. (WSJ)
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“‘Complete cowardice’: Why Big Business sat out the tariff legal fight” (Politico)
Best of the rest
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Norway’s Parliament moved to prevent the country’s $2.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund from having to sell its stakes in Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and others over the companies’ work for the Israeli government. (FT)
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“Trader Jeff Yass Is Giving $100 Million to ‘Anti-Woke’ University of Austin” (WSJ)
We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to [email protected].
Andrew Ross Sorkin is a columnist and the founder of DealBook, the flagship business and policy newsletter at The Times and an annual conference.
Bernhard Warner is a senior editor for DealBook, a newsletter from The Times, covering business trends, the economy and the markets.
Sarah Kessler is the weekend edition editor of the DealBook newsletter and writes features on business.
Michael J. de la Merced has covered global business and finance news for The Times since 2006.
Niko Gallogly is a Times reporter, covering business for the DealBook newsletter.
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